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Agreeing a future EU–UK deal is not the biggest of the EU’s Brexit headaches

How to deal with a UK that is both an ally and a competitor could prove to be a complicated task for the EU

How to deal with a UK that is both an ally and a competitor could prove to be a more complicated task for the EU than negotiating the future relationship, argues Georgina Wright.

Preparations for UK–EU talks are intensifying in Brussels. Michel Barnier’s team has been holding daily briefings with EU diplomats to hammer out a common position and agree acceptable trade-offs. Member states are set to finalise the EU’s draft negotiating mandate in time for its formal adoption on 25 February. The EU27 know the outcome will be a compromise, though some feel the draft mandate tries too hard to reconcile some of the UK’s demands. EU negotiators want to be clear on member states’ priorities and their red lines before negotiations begin.

The European Commission thinks a basic deal is possible – but only if the UK provides more detail on what it wants, adopts a constructive tone and shows that it is serious about implementing the Northern Ireland protocol by the end of the year.

But Brexit presents a longer-term challenge for the EU. It needs to decide how it can work constructively with a neighbour that is both an important partner and a prospective competitor.

The EU expects these negotiations to be the toughest yet

The EU27 are under no illusion that the UK wants to do things differently. That was clear to them from the moment Theresa May said the UK would be leaving the single market and customs union. They also know that Boris Johnson is serious about leaving the transition period at the end of the year – even if that means leaving without a trade deal. But stark points of disagreement remain, not only on fish and access to British waters but also on governance. The EU27 want one mechanism for dialogue and dispute-settlement to cover the whole UK–EU agreement; the UK government prefers a sector-specific approach.

The EU’s other concern is how to manage future regulatory divergence. It wants the UK to sign up to level-playing field commitments to prevent British business undercutting EU companies – especially if the UK introduces subsidies that help some sectors gain a competitive advantage. The EU, and in particular the Commission, wants to make sure that British exports to the EU are subjected to appropriate checks and balances.

Negotiating the UK–EU future relationship is important – but so is implementing the Withdrawal Agreement

Agreeing a deal on the future relationship could also be linked to progress made on the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement. This includes agreeing the details of the Northern Ireland protocol – such as which GB goods are exempt from EU duties.

Another concern for member states, especially those with a land or sea border with the UK, is how the GB/NI border will prevent GB products (that do not meet EU standards) from making an unregulated crossing of the Irish border.

The EU27 have yet to think through what Brexit means for the future of the EU

The big strategic question for the EU27 is what Brexit means for the EU’s future – both in terms of existing without the UK and finding new ways to work with it.

As a member state, the UK opposed some EU initiatives, like its ambition for a closer political union, but it also drove some of the EU’s greatest successes – not least the enlargement and the completion of the single market. How the EU makes up for that absence is unclear. Then there is co-operation. A failure to reach a deal on fish could limit UK–EU co-operation elsewhere, such as over security.

All this requires careful but swift planning. For a union used to approaching change with caution, this could become an even greater headache than reaching a basic deal by the end of the year.

Topic
Brexit
Country (international)
European Union
Publisher
Institute for Government

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