Making Coalition Government Work: the pundits' view

Key points

Danny Finkelstein argued the government faced being overwhelmed by the fiscal issue over the coming six months.

His view was that the public does not realise that another round of tax rises and spending cuts is coming in the autumn. Many believed that the Budget was the end of the bad news.

That meant that asking now how the coalition is doing is therefore akin to asking a person falling from the top of a tower block how they are doing half way down.

Nonetheless, he believed that the coalition was likely to 'go long' (that is, to survive the full five years or close to it). This is because it will not be in the interests of either partner to pull the plug on the government at an early stage.

As with John Major's 92-97 administration, a government may survive without being popular or effective!

Olly Grender claimed the government had been successful so far in transforming politics. It was reforming parliament and the electoral system, and helping to spark a revived interest in politics among the public (as indicated by the rising membership of all the main parties).

Whether the government had been a success so far at improving people's lives was harder to say at this early stage. However she pointed to action on civil liberties and banking reform as areas of strong progress so far.

A key question is whether the Liberal Democrats are themselves doing well out of coalition government. Olly noted that while the media are frequently predicting electoral disaster for the party, those actually involved in government are positive about their experience so far.

Ultimately the test would be whether the party built its credibility over the long term, not what its poll ratings looked like in the short term. The Lib Dems were more resilient than many who did not know them well believed.

Will Straw suggested that, as Angela Merkel has said, both coalition parties would benefit if things go well, but the smaller party would take a disproportionate hit if things go badly.

Will maintained recent polling evidence indicated the honeymoon was over, especially for the junior partner.

While Tory voters tended to be satisfied with the government, only 40% of LibDems were happy. As a result, LibDem voters were deserting the party, especially to Labour. 

He expressed scepticism of claims that the coalition had sparked a revival of collective Cabinet government. He suggested Downing Street 'slapdowns' of Vince Cable on graduate tax and Crispin Blunt on prisons policy suggested that centralised control (as under Labour) may be reasserting itself.

Will also challenged Olly's more optimistic view of progressive policy developments so far, on the grounds that most of the detail on issues such as banking reform and the 'pupil premium' remained to be filled in.

The panel had mixed views on the likely success of the alternative vote referendum. However, it seemed agreed that the coalition could probably survive a no vote, though much would depend on the tone of the campaign.

The review of tuition fees would be a very difficult issue – but a solution would be found.

Finally, some unlikely partnerships were being forged in government. For example, Eric Pickles and Andrew Stunnell had found much in common on localism.