Government reshuffle 2014 – live-blog

15 July 2014

What is expected to be David Cameron’s final government reshuffle before the 2015 General Election is underway. Gavin Freeguard and Caragh Nimmo provide the data as part of a Whitehall Monitor live blog.

The latest data on the reshuffle from the Institute’s Whitehall Monitor team. Follow the conversation on twitter @instituteforgov, @GavinFreeguard, @caraghnimmo and #WhitehallMonitor.

19.38

All that remains for us to say is thank you for reading and retweeting! And thanks to our colleagues at the Institute for Government for their support and expertise.

If you’d like to know more about the departments the new ministers will be running, you can find key charts about their workforce and finances at a glance as part of our factsheets, or see Whitehall Monitor 2014 or our blogposts.

Until the next data release…

19.30

And a final summary, on diversity.

A higher percentage of the MPs elected in 2015 were women than at any other General Election.

The Tories have a lower percentage of female MPs than Labour and the SNP…

…but the percentage has increased since 2010.

A higher percentage of Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State are female compared to 2010, but there is a smaller percentage of women in Parliamentary Under Secretary of State roles.

Six departments are led by female Permanent Secretaries, compared to four in 2010.

The 2005 and 2010 intakes dominate the new Cabinet.

19.22

Here’s a summary of what happened in terms of ministerial moves.

On Friday, Cameron’s ‘new’ Cabinet was very much ‘as you were’.

Four senior ministers were reappointed to their pre-Election posts. Helpfully, David Cameron let us know that he was finished for the night.

But the loss of Lib Dem ministers meant some reshuffling was inevitable…

 

…and there were a few changes over the weekend.

By Monday, Michael Gove had taken the helm at the Ministry of Justice, Chris Grayling became Leader of the Commons, and Mark Harper took Chief Whip. Nicky Morgan remained Education Secretary.

By Monday evening, seven departments had new Secretaries of State.

 

By the end of Day Two, Cameron’s Cabinet had taken shape, with seven departments having a new Secretary of State: BIS (Javid), MoJ (Gove), DCLG (Clark), DECC (Rudd), Whittingdale (DCMS), Cabinet Office (Hancock) and the Scotland Office (Mundell). Cameron was showing consistency similar to Tony Blair’s second term.

Junior ministers were appointed and reappointed on Monday and Tuesday.

 

This took us into Day Three of our live blog with Junior Ministers. We looked at why junior ministerial stability matters; not least, they help radically in policy implementation and championing important ideas in a department.

By the end of the day, with only Commons Whips and Lords left to appoint, five departments – Cabinet Office, DCMS, DCLG, DECC, and DWP – had 50% of all ministers new to their posts. Eight ministers, including David Cameron, remain in the same post as May 2010 when the Coalition government was appointed.

No government departments were created or abolished.

The Opposition also conducted a small reshuffle.

Labour conducted a mini-reshuffle on Monday due to some shadow ministers – Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran – losing their seats and Harriet Harman replacing Ed Miliband as acting leader.

18.59

With nearly all new ministers appointed – only the Commons Whips and any Lords to go, we think – we’re bringing our live-blogging to a close.

Thanks for reading! But if for some reason you weren’t glued to the screen as we live blogged the formation of the government (or reshuffle, if you prefer), we’ll let you off. Here are the highlights of the last few days.

David Cameron re-entered Downing Street as Prime Minister following the 2015 General Election.

Cameron leads a majority government, which is not what the polls had predicted.

Polls had predicted a hung parliament where no party would win more than 50% of seats – it would have been the fifth General Election since 1918 where that happened.

In the event, Cameron was able to form a majority government and did not have to rely on the Lib Dems as in 2010.

Most of the years since 1918 have been spent under majority administrations – although 30 years have been spent under minority or coalition governments.

The Lib Dems saw their vote share plummet, not uncommon for junior coalition partners.

And many people have commented on the disparity between vote share and seat share produced by the electoral system.

18.36

Right. This will be our final original chart before we give a highlights reel over the last few days.

At 18.15, we published a chart showing when MPs in the Cabinet (full members and attending) first entered Parliament. Here’s the same chart, by gender:

The large number of women from the 2010 intake may be less surprising when you consider, as Liz Carolan did in a blogpost in September 2012, that the 2010 election nearly tripled the number of Conservative women in the Commons.

18.30

We’re expecting further appointments from the House of Lords. One post yet to be appointed is that of Chief Whip in the Lords.

Whoever they are (it was Lord Taylor of Holbeach at the end of the last parliament), they – along with Leader of the Lords, Baroness Stowell – will have an important role to play in steering the Government’s legislative agenda through the Upper House. While the Conservatives have a (small) majority in the Commons, no Government has held a majority in the Lords since 1999.

 

Since the departure of most hereditary peers in 1999, the House has been mainly appointed. The Conservatives currently have 224 to Labour’s 214 members, while the Liberal Democrats have 102. The SNP refuse to appoint members. The Prime Minister is expected to appoint a number of new peers when Parliament returns, but it seems unlikely that enough will be appointed to seriously affect the party balance.

The House also contains 178 Crossbenchers, who do not take a party whip and do not vote as a bloc, but can be very influential. Another non-party bloc is the 26 Church of England Bishops.

So the Chief Whip will not only need to ensure that their own party’s peers vote the right way but attract support from other groups in the House. The last Labour Government was in a similar minority position in the House of Lords and was defeated 175 times between 2005 and 2010, according to UCL Constitution Unit figures. The Coalition Government held a majority of party-aligned members but not of the whole House, and were defeated 99 times between 2010 and 2015, according to the Constitution Unit.

With significant constitutional legislation (notably including repeal of the Human Rights Act) promised in their manifesto, the new Government might reasonably expect significant difficulties in the Upper House. By convention, the House of Lords does not reject legislation based on manifesto pledges; more broadly Government bills are only very rarely defeated (and the Commons can force them through in the next parliamentary session under the Parliament Act). This does not, however, prevent the Lords from amending legislation short of defeating the Government’s policy.

18.15

We’re going to wrap up with a series of summary blogposts soon, but before we get started on the beginning of the end, as it were…

This chart shows when all the MPs in the new Cabinet – full members and attending – first entered parliament. As you can see, the 2005 and 2010 intakes dominate:

18.05

Let’s take a closer look at our ‘churn chart’ – when ministers were appointed to their current post:

Some things to note:

More than 50% of ministers in five departments are new to their posts. These are:

  • Cabinet Office, including the Minister for the Cabinet Office
  • DCMS, including the Secretary of State
  • DCLG, including the Secretary of State
  • DECC, including the Secretary of State
  • DWP, although two of its ministers survive from the formation of the Coalition in 2010.

Eight people remain in the same post as in May 2010. They are:

  • David Cameron – Prime Minister
  • George Osborne – Chancellor
  • Theresa May – Home Secretary
  • Iain Duncan Smith – Secretary of State at DWP
  • David Lidington – Minister of State for Europe, FCO
  • Lord Astor of Hever – Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, MoD
  • Lord Freud – Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Welfare Reform, DWP
  • Lord Howe – Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Quality, Department of Health.

17.45

Here’s the gender balance of the current government (which includes all people appointed since Friday, and Commons Whips and Lords ministers who have not yet resigned) compared to the previous one:

It shows that the percentage of women in the Cabinet (full members and attending) has gone up, the percentage of women at Minister of State level has gone up, and the percentage of women at Parliamentary Under Secretary of State level has gone down.

17.38

The list of ministerial appointments just published by the government says:

Further announcements regarding appointments and confirmation of existing appointments relating to Lords Ministers and the Commons and Lords Whips’ Offices will be made.

We’re assuming that means that no more MPs will be appointed to ministerial posts (other than the Whips’ Office). Given that, the chart below shows when ministers were first appointed to their current post (this also includes members of the Lords where they’ve been appointed, or where they have not yet resigned):

17.11

Among the (re)appointments that hadn’t previously been confirmed by Number 10 are some at DfE:

  • Nick Gibb remains Minister of State – he was Minister of State for School Reform at the end of the Coalition
  • Sam Gyimah remains Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – he was responsible for childcare and education at the end of the Coalition.

As you can see from the below, DfE has a budget of nearly £60bn:

Most of this – more than £50bn – flows through the Education Funding Agency, an executive agency which supports ‘all state-provided education for 8 million children aged 3 to 16, and 1.6 million young people aged 16 to 19’, including academy schools.

This is not an easy task – Petr Bouchal wrote back in January about the Comptroller and Auditor General issuing an adverse opinion on DfE’s accounts:

It is important to note that there is no evidence that anything untoward has been happening – indeed the problem is precisely that the department doesn’t have a good enough grip on the spending of academies to be able to know how money is being spent.

Nor are the problems due to incompetence or lack of trying. Indeed the C&AG has noted improvements. Rather, the challenges the department faces have to do with the speed and scale of implementation of the academies programme, and with the particular model of accountability and financial control the department has chosen to apply to the academies landscape.

The department’s implementation model for the academy programme has meant that the department has moved from a world in which it held policy responsibility for education and handed over large grants to local authorities, to one in which it exercises direct control over funding for some 4,000 schools in roughly 2,600 academy trusts. This is akin to a department acquiring several thousand arm’s-length bodies, or indeed turning itself into the largest local authority in the country – and at very fast pace. More than 1,100 academies were added last year alone.

Collecting the right financial data at this scale was never going to be easy, let alone developing a way of using it within a governance system fit to meaningfully manage and account for some £15bn.

There was organisational chopping and changing in order to operate the financial machinery, too. The Education Funding Agency (EFA) – the body which manages the department’s financial relations with individual academy trusts – has been created from several arm’s-length bodies and has had to scale up its operation very rapidly.

Our research director, Tom Gash, has written separately about the accountability of academy chains.

Another possible challenge at DfE will be keeping civil servants engaged. The annual Civil Service People Survey asks civil servants various questions about how they feel about their department, and DfE was the only department to see its overall Engagement Index score fall every year between 2009 and 2013. However, it saw improvements across the board in 2014 – we analysed why in a blogpost earlier this year.

17.00

The Number 10 Twitter account has just tweeted a link to a list of all ministerial appointments so far – you can find it here, and we’ll be bringing you some further charts and analysis shortly.

16.33

Earlier (12.13) we brought you a chart showing what’s happened to the vote share of various junior coalition partners, including the Liberal Democrats at this election.

We’ve got a slightly revised version below. This one distinguishes between junior coalition partners who remained in government after the following election, and those who didn’t. As the authors of the Endgames report, Akash Paun and Robyn Munro, put it:

smaller parties have a limited influence over whether they remain in government or not. A party may remain in coalition even after a poor election result (as for D66 in 2003) or may end up in opposition even after performing well (as for the German Greens in 2005 or the Scottish Liberal Democrats in 2007). The Liberal Democrats should therefore make the most of the rest of this Parliament, and seek to achieve as much of its agenda as possible before 2015.

16.20

For those of you just joining us, welcome to day 3 of our live blog! We’ve been tracking the formation of the new government in graphs. If you’d like to catch up on what’s gone on so far, you can also visit:

16.13

Some outlets – notably ConservativeHome, whose live blog is here – are saying that ministerial appointments are being made, but without any fanfare from Number 10.

We’ll update our charts once we’ve had confirmation from the centre, whether that’s via the Number 10 Twitter account or a full list from the Cabinet Office.

15.47

Rather than twiddling our thumbs waiting for the next appointment, we thought we’d bring you another chart instead.

One of the themes of the coverage of this election was the rise of smaller parties and the decline of the traditional parties. As we saw earlier (10.23), there’s also been some discussion of the voting system and the difference between vote share and seat share.

Here’s a chart showing both vote share and seat share for the largest two parties since 1918. (In every case except 1918, that’s Labour and the Conservatives.)

The two party share of the vote actually went up slightly in 2015, although it had fallen at every other election since 1992 and the trend has been downwards since the high of 1951. The two party seat share dipped slightly in 2015, but the percentage of seats won by the Conservatives and Labour was still nearly 20 percentage points higher than their vote share.

We first used a version of this chart in Akash Paun’s introduction to our 2009 report, Making Minority Government Work.

15.36

14.49

Prior to the election, there were 121 individual ministers in government.  10 of them held positions in more than one department at the same time.

BIS had the greatest number of joint ministers:  it shared ministers with DECC, DH, DfE, DCMS and CO.  The high numbers of joint ministers at DfE were due to Nicky Morgan’s dual responsibilities as Secretary of State for Education and Minister for Women:  Jo Swinson, Sam Gyimah and Nick Boles all held equalities positions ostensibly within in DfE, along with other briefs in other departments.

There are two types of joint ministers:  those who hold the same, cross-cutting brief across two departments – genuine ‘ministers sans frontieres’ – and ministers who hold two different briefs in their two departments.  In the latter case, junior ministers essentially hold two part-time jobs, adding to their already stretched workload.

In a recent briefing paper, we recommended that the Prime Minister should deploy joint ministers where cross-departmental collaboration is particularly important.  So far in this reshuffle, Cameron has appointed three joint ministers:

  • Nick Boles continues his dual role as minister for skills and equalities in BIS and DfE
  • Francis Maude will (we presume) take over from Lord Livingston as Minister for Trade at FCO and BIS
  • Caroline Dinenage will take on an equalities role at DfE as well as a different role at MoJ.

So far, then, it does not seem that Cameron is using his new reshuffle freedom to promote cross-departmental harmony through the creation of new, inter-departmental roles.  But there are still around 60 posts not yet confirmed, so we may see a rise in joint ministers yet.

14.21

Civil Service World have cleared up some of the confusion around the two ministerial appointments to the Cabinet Office yesterday. Oliver Letwin was appointed a full member of the Cabinet having ‘overall responsibility’ for the department, while Matt Hancock was named Minister for the Cabinet Office, attending Cabinet. This is what CSW have to say:

A description of Hancock’s role provided by the Cabinet Office today in an updated ministerial profile matches that previously given to Maude, and includes responsibility for the civil service;  public sector efficiency and reform; public sector industrial relations; government transparency; cyber security; and civil society.

The Cabinet Office this afternoon confirmed to CSW that while Hancock will be Cabinet-attending, he is a minister of state, with Letwin serving as the full Cabinet minister for the department.

Hancock replaces Francis Maude, who was the longest serving Minister for the Cabinet Office since at least 1997.

The Cabinet Office has undergone quite a lot of change since 2010, with new organisations and units – such as the Major Projects Authority and Government Digital Service – being created. It’s interesting that in the Civil Service People Survey, where civil servants are asked a number of questions under a number of themes, the Cabinet Office’s performance in ‘organisational objectives and purpose’ is some way behind the others:

More on the Cabinet Office’s workforce in our factsheet.

14.05

We looked yesterday at the gender balance of MPs in the new parliament (see 17:04 and 17:51, or these tweets). But is there anything else we can say about the diversity and backgrounds of MPs?

The Sutton Trust (hat tip to our colleague, Jonathan Pearson) has published some analysis of the educational backgrounds of the new intake, which we’ve added to the House of Commons Library’s figures.

They show that just under half of all Conservative MPs attended private school. The number has been falling for some time.

Around a third of Conservative MPs attended either Oxford or Cambridge universities, although the percentage of Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs who attended Oxbridge has fallen since 2010. The percentage of Labour MPs who have attended Oxbridge has bumped up slightly.

13.21

Today’s appointments have been of ‘junior ministers’, which we use to mean two different ranks: Ministers of State and Parliamentary Under Secretaries of State. Here’s a short explainer from the parliament.uk site about what the different ministerial titles mean:

Departmental Ministers in the Cabinet are generally called ‘Secretary of State’ but some have special titles such as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Ministers of State and Junior Ministers assist the ministers in charge of the department. They normally have responsibility for a particular area within the department and are sometimes given a title that reflects this.

12.50

The appointments have started up again… Dominic Raab is new to government as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Ministry of Justice.

This is when ministers came into their posts – MoJ has a new Secretary of State in Michael Gove, as well as Raab:

12.13

In 2013, the Institute’s Akash Paun and Robyn Munro wrote a briefing paper for the Liberal Democrat conference, offering international examples of how smaller coalition parties handled their endgame.  They noted that:

International experience shows that coalition can indeed be tough on smaller parties, who often see a drop in vote share at subsequent elections. But there are also examples of junior coalition partners who have profited from coalition in terms of both policies achieved and increased vote share.

As the chart below shows, smaller coalition parties usually lose vote share after they enter coalition, and do not always recover their previous standing, even after many years.

We looked at some of the examples in more detail. One of the more negative examples (from the perspective of a junior coalition partner) was of the Irish Greens:

In Ireland, smaller coalition parties have been described as ‘punchbags for heavyweights’. The most recent example of this phenomenon is the Irish Green Party, which entered Coalition with Fianna Fail in 2007 after gathering vote share across three previous elections. The Greens had gained popularity as a small party with a distinct ideology and agenda. The party did secure some distinctive policy wins in coalition, such as a ban on stag hunting, but at a time of economic crisis this was seen as an esoteric priority. The Greens were also criticised for backing down over issues which had previously been seen as key policies, such as opposition to motorway expansion. The party struggled under the pressure of having to agree on tough action to tackle the financial crisis and ultimately pulled out of government shortly before the election, but this was in vain. The party’s vote share collapsed with the loss of all seats in 2011. This episode illustrates the difficulty of a small party maintaining its distinct identity. But the party also suffered from the bad luck of being in government at a time of crisis, and in partnership with a tired and ultimately discredited larger party.

Of course, the big difference between the Irish example in 2011 and the 2015 General Election is that, while in the Irish example the larger partner also collapsed, in the UK, the Conservatives have a majority of the seats in the House of Commons and can govern as a majority.

11.43

While we wait for further appointments, let’s take a look at the departments the new ministers will actually be running.

As we noted in our Whitehall Monitor 2014 report:

When people think of government departments (if they think of them at all), it is probably what they have in common that stands out – the department of this or the ministry of that, based somewhere in London SW1, that receives money from the Treasury, employs people to work on behalf of the Government and has a politician representing it around the Cabinet table, in Parliament and through the media to the public. But government departments in 2014 vary hugely in what they are, what they do, and how they do it.

Take budgets, for example. Departments range from DWP, with £170bn, to the Cabinet Office, with £0.4bn:

You can discover more by reading:

11.24

The Guardian reports that Chuka Umunna, Shadow Secretary of State for BIS, is to run for the leadership of the Labour Party.

As you can see from our chart below, he’s held that position since October 2011, making him one of the longer-serving Shadow Cabinet members in their brief.

11.17

So how much choice do Secretaries of State get over their ministerial team? As we wrote in The Challenge of Being a Minister (2011):

The fault lies less with secretaries of state – who often have little say in the appointment of junior ministers – than with prime ministers: “There is no rhyme or reason to it – it is driven by politics rather than by suitability for a particular role.”

The former Cabinet Secretary, Lord Gus O’Donnell, and former Cabinet minister Patricia Hewitt discussed this at the launch of our pre-election briefing notes. You can watch the exchange here, as O’Donnell calls for people to think more about the ‘team’ of ministers – and Hewitt mentions that she at least got to throw a few choices back in…

10.57

We noted earlier that Rory Stewart, previously chair of the Defence Select Committee in the Commons, has been appointed as a junior minister. (Other select committee members, such as Tracey Crouch, have also been appointed ministers.)

Given Stewart’s experience in the army and the diplomatic services,  his appointment was viewed as a boon to those who wanted to see more ‘real world’ experience brought to bear in select committees. His ministerial move, though, may raise questions about the idea that the select committee system presents an alternative career path for ambitious MPs.

As we noted in our briefing paper on parliamentary scrutiny, one of the unique things about the scrutiny conducted by select committees and others in parliament is that it’s undertaken by politicians, with all the accompanying motivations:

Perhaps most obviously, unlike almost all other forms of scrutiny, parliamentary scrutiny is undertaken by politicians, mainly by members of Parliament or peers who are not part of the executive (although they may be members of the same political party). This means that political scrutiny is sensitive to the political ideologies and practicalities that shape government actions, in contrast to other forms of scrutiny, which are sometimes criticised for producing worthy but politically unworkable solutions. Politicians’ political antennae and networks normally enable them to check the acceptability of recommendations before they are made. In comparison with other actors involved in scrutiny, politicians have real opportunities to influence the Government’s agenda. However, the fact that parliamentary scrutiny is undertaken by politicians means that it is shaped by many motivations besides the ambition to improve the effectiveness of government. These may compromise the effectiveness of scrutiny. For example, a backbench government-party MP might treat a minister gently in a select committee hearing or ask a helpful question at Prime Minister’s Questions in order to enhance their own career prospects. More seriously, they might ask a question to serve outside interests for personal gain. This is not to imply that other actors engaged in scrutiny are not motivated by such factors, but to highlight the potential range of conflicting motivations in a political context.

10.48

A bit from our archives on why junior ministerial stability matters. From The Challenge of Being a Minister (2011):

One minister noted that: “unless you leave ministers there for some time, actual ministerial power is hugely constrained”. Another said, “rotating people really quickly is ridiculous”…

Charles Clarke (in evidence to the Public Administration Committee in 2006-07) noted: 

Changing Europe ministers frequently is a terrible mistake, particularly that job. If you talk about stakeholders, the range of contacts across European politics which the individual has is an absolutely prize asset, which is why many countries have foreign secretaries who are very long-standing because those networks are very important.

There is, of course, a fine balance between serving long enough and too long. Much depends on the performance of the minister. It is sensible to get rid of ministers who are manifestly not up to the job rather than leave them in post. And there are always casualties produced by scandals (either personal or in ministerial performance), as well as the accidents of life. The problem is, rather, the appearance of moving ministers around who have started to do a reasonable job and could make a larger impact if left there for another year.

A common civil service view is that ministers are “most effective after a year, but not the opposite extreme of being stuck for five or six years”. A minister commented:

You can’t do anything in 18 months [one estimate of the average tenure] – but three or four years is a bit long because you come round to things you have done before. There is a tendency to lose energy. Two or three years is probably about optimal.

A senior civil servant agreed: “A reasonable amount of time in post is hugely important – 18 months at a minimum and two and a half years [is] good.”

In evidence to the Public Administration Select Committee in 2006, the long-serving Labour minister Nick Raynsford made this point about the motivations for ministers:

[Ministers are] assumed to have to make their mark within a year or two… they are going to want to do something quickly. The last thing they are going to want to do is to focus on maintaining a programme that is going to take 10 years to produce results when they will not be there to get the benefit of the praise. That, I think, is an insidious culture.

10.41

Tracey Crouch is the new Minister for Sport at DCMS. She was previously a member of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee (and is an FA-qualified football coach of a local girls’ team).

This is the current view of when ministers entered their post:

10.32

In our live-blog yesterday we explained the importance of junior ministers, as well as the more-headline-grabbing Secretaries of State. Here’s a reminder.

Here’s an extract from one of our pre-election briefing papers, Turning Policy Priorities into Effective Change:

Often it is junior ministers who are better placed than secretaries of state to devote time to driving implementation: bringing external stakeholders on board, championing specific policies within departments, and monitoring progress… Given the important role junior ministers can play in driving implementation, there is a clear case for ensuring leadership continuity for important projects – as seen with the London Challenge schools programme under Stephen Twigg and pensions reform under Steve Webb.

And here’s our colleague Emma Norris in a 2014 blogpost:

Junior ministers do the bulk of the heavy lifting in Parliament, with secretaries of state making cameo appearances at the start and the end of a bill… Institute for Government research suggests that junior ministers also play an important role in policy implementation. We looked at the London Challenge school improvement programme, the Fuel Poverty Strategy, Sure Start children’s centres and automatic enrolment into pensions…

Good junior ministers who have stuck with a policy for some time have knowledge of the detail and of why decisions and compromises have been made, hold strong relationships with people outside government, and have a keen awareness of and ability to manage the politics of implementation. Changes and churn can destabilise this.

10.23

In our live blog yesterday (at 12.06 to be precise) we took a look at the General Election result.

A lot of people have been discussing the voting system over the last few days – here’s our chart on the difference between vote share and seat share:

10.05

Damian Hinds has moved from the Whips’ Office to become Exchequer Secretary at the Treasury. This is what government currently looks like:

As we’ve previously noted, the Treasury between 2010 and 2015 was something of a conveyor belt for ministerial talent, with three junior Treasury ministers – Greening, Javid and Morgan – becoming Secretaries of State.

10.00

A reminder that yo can find factsheets on the Civil Service workforce and the finances for each department on our website.

For example, Mark Lancaster has been appointed as a Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – for Defence Personnel, Welfare & Veterans – at the Ministry of Defence. You can see that moD is one of the bigger employers in the Civil Servcie, with around 14% of all civil servants:

Meanwhile, John Penrose has been appointed Parliamentary Secretary at the Cabinet Office. They are one of only three departments to have increased staff since 2010:

09.51

New appointments so far this morning, courtesy of the David Cameron and Number 10 Twitter accounts, and all at Parliamentary Under Secretary of State level:

  • Ben Gummer at the Department of Health
  • Justin Tomlinson, minister for disabled people, DWP
  • Rory Stewart at Defra
  • James Wharton at DCLG ‘with responsibility for the Northern Powerhouse’
  • Marcus Jones at DCLG, for local government
  • Andrew Jones, DfT
  • Ben Wallace, Northern Ireland Office
  • Caroline Dinenage becomes a minister at MoJ, and also an equalities minister at DfE.

So, as of now, this is when the ministers currently in departments – either new appointments or people carried over from the previous government that have not yet been moved – came into their posts. The pink shows those new to their posts in this reshuffle:

09.40

While we get to grips with the new appointments this morning, The Guardian has a helpful interactive with details of the new Cabinet.

09.38

Morning everyone, and welcome to day 3 of our live blog, giving you the formation of David Cameron’s new government in graphs. There have been a few more appointments which we’ll bring you details of shortly, but first…

As of last night, Cameron had made 44 appointments – out of a maximum 121. At least five of those are in positions formerly held by Liberal Democrat ministers:  Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd and Alistair Carmichael as Secretaries of State for BIS, DECC and the Scotland Office respectively, Ros Altmann as Minister for Pensions at DWP and Greg Hands as Chief Secretary of the Treasury.

As the graph below shows, 18 ministers across the 19 major Whitehall departments were Liberal Democrats (including the Deputy Prime Minister).  So, even if no other Conservative ministers are moved, we can expect a few more new appointments today.  As we previously noted, the junior coalition partners chose to spread their ministers as widely as possible, so new faces will be appearing across the whole of Whitehall in this new-old government.

19.25

The Prime Minister hasn’t made any new appointments for over 45 minutes now, so this is probably a good time to wrap up for the day. So what’s happened?

Seven departments have new Secretaries of State…

These are BIS (Javid), MoJ (Gove), DCLG (Clark), DECC (Rudd), Whittingdale (DCMS), Cabinet Office (Hancock) and the Scotland Office (Mundell). This degree of change and continuity is comparable to the start of Blair’s second term in 2001.

…and they are the same departments as before the election.

Despite many rumours, there have been no machinery of government changes – making, breaking or merging of departments.

There is a slightly higher percentage of women in the Cabinet than before the election.

In 2009 David Cameron declared, ‘If elected, by the end of our first Parliament I want a third of all my ministers to be female’.  He failed to achieve this goal:  before 7 May 2015, only 23% of full cabinet ministers were women. He’s now closer to it: 30% of full cabinet members are women, 31% of all attendees.

None of the Shadow Cabinet are in the same post as in October 2010, when Ed Miliband was elected leader.

Labour conducted a mini-reshuffle due to some shadow ministers losing their seats and Harriet Harman replacing Ed Miliband as acting leader. Sadiq Khan was the only person to have stayed in the same post from 2010 to 2015, but has now resigned.

You can find charts on the workforce and finances of every department in our factsheets.

These will give you some key facts on the number of civil servants, which organisations they work for and how they feel about their departments, and on the size of, composition of and changes to departmental budgets.

That’s it for tonight – we’ll be back tomorrow. Thanks for following!

18.50

One further announcement: Jeremy Wright remains Attorney General.

One dog that hasn’t barked today is any reform of the machinery of government. Despite various rumours, no departments have been made, broken or merged.

This is line with our advice in Reshaping Government, where we cautioned Prime Ministers against major changes without extensive discussions or presenting a business case, and called for more considered thinking from government and opposition. In his blogpost summarising the report, Tom Gash said that parliament should also be involved.

Separately, Jill Rutter noted that the usual ‘bonfire of the quangos’ has failed to ignite this time round.

18.26

We’ve looked at the gender of parliament and of ministers today, but what about the Permanent Secretaries that will greet new ministers?

From our blogpost last week:

incoming ministers will also find that their top officials are not significantly more diverse than in 2010. Then there were four women in charge of departments (numbers soon to be boosted in the next round of appointments) and two permanent secretaries from an ethnic minority. There are now six women in charge of departments – a recovery from the mid-session low after the quick succession of departures – reflecting the fact that the most recent two appointments were both female.

18.03

Francis Maude, the former Minister for the Cabinet Office, has been appointed Minister of State for Trade at BIS and the Foreign Office. This gives us the chart below for when ministers entered their post:

17.56

Even if Cameron wanted to make minimise his reshuffle changes, the exit of the Lib Dems from the government leaves some spaces to fill. At dissolution, there were 17 Liberal Democrat ministers across the 19 main Whitehall departments.

So far, we know that Vince Cable, Ed Davey, Alistair Carmichael, Danny Alexander and Steve Webb have been directly replaced.  Over the coming hours and days, it will become clearer which new ministers have taken over which former Liberal Democrat portfolios.

We looked at the party balance in more depth a few weeks ago.

17.51

Back to gender for a moment. David Cameron now has more women to choose from when making his government appointments than before.

21% of Conservatives are now female. This is a lower percentage than Labour (43%) and the SNP (36%), but more than the Lib Dems who are left with no female MPs after the election.

However, although the Tories lag behind some of the other parties, they have a higher percentage of women than in 2010 – rising from 16% to 21%. The SNP and Labour have also increased their female representation as a percentage of their parliamentary party.

Do check out the House of Commons Library’s ‘Second Reading’ blog for more.

17.37

We’ve now published factsheets with some basic details for each department – one on people (the civil servants they employ), one on finances (budget size, composition and change).

Four more updates:

  • George Eustice moves from Parliamentary Under Secretary to Minister of State at Defra
  • Andrea Leadsom moves from the Treasury to become Minister of State at DECC
  • Nick Boles has got some additional responsibilities at BIS and DfE
  • Anne Milton is the new deputy chief whip.

Leadsom is another example of the Treasury conveyor belt we wrote about here (and at 10.15).

17.24

Some more appointments:

  • John Hayes is the new Minister for Security (Minister of State) at the Home Office
  • Alistair Burt is now Minister for State at the Department of Health
  • Jo Johnson moves from the Cabinet Office to become Minister for Universities and Science (Minister of State) at BIS
  • Philip Dunne is the new Minister for Defence Procurement (Minister of State) at MoD, moving up from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State
  • Edward Timpson moves from being Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Children and Families at DfE to Minister of State for Children and Families at DfE
  • Nick Boles remains Minister of State for Skills at BIS.

This graphic shows the percentage of ministers in each department who came into their post at each reshuffle.  This includes the junior ministers along with their Secretaries of State.  In darkest grey are the ministers who have been in the same post since 2010, while the pink sections show brand new appointments.

All of the Liberal Democrats have been ‘removed’ from our government graphic, so what we can see here are mostly Conservative ministers who were in post before the election, many of whose fates are not yet know.  At the moment, it is not always clear who new ministers are replacing, so our chart may currently show ministers who have in fact been replaced.  This should become clearer as more ministerial announcements are made.

DWP was formerly one of the most unchanged departments, but no longer.  Iain Duncan Smith has kept the post he has held since 2010, but he will have two new colleagues to work with:  Priti Patel, a former junior Treasury minister, and Roz Altman. If Lord Freud is replaced, the DWP Secretary of State will be left with a job he knows well, but an entirely fresh team of colleagues to work with.

17.04

We’ll bring you more on the latest junior ministerial appointments shortly, but first some more on gender balance.

We noted earlier (16.33) that there is a slightly higher percentage of women in David Cameron’s Cabinet compared to this time last week. The same is true of Parliament. The 2015 General Election returned its highest-ever percentage of female MPs – 29%. Thanks again to the House of Commons Library for those figures.

16.56

Some more junior ministerial appointments:

  • Penny Mordaunt becomes Minister of State and Minister for the Armed Forces at MoD, moving from DCLG
  • Mark Francois becomes Minister of State at DCLG, moving from MoD.

Some more on why junior ministers matter, from a 2014 blogpost by our colleague Emma Norris:

Junior ministers do the bulk of the heavy lifting in Parliament, with secretaries of state making cameo appearances at the start and the end of a bill… Institute for Government research suggests that junior ministers also play an important role in policy implementation. We looked at the London Challenge school improvement programme, the Fuel Poverty Strategy, Sure Start children’s centres and automatic enrolment into pensions…

Good junior ministers who have stuck with a policy for some time have knowledge of the detail and of why decisions and compromises have been made, hold strong relationships with people outside government, and have a keen awareness of and ability to manage the politics of implementation. Changes and churn can destabilise this.

And some more on Steve Webb’s work at DWP as pensions minister from 2010-2015 can be found in our automatic enrolment case study.

16.45

The Institute for Government has just released this statement on Matthew Hancock’s appointment as Minister for the Cabinet Office:

The Institute for Government welcomes the appointment of Matt Hancock as Minister for Efficiency and Civil Service Reform, following the extensive work and personal commitment of Francis Maude over the past five years. Political leadership is crucial to securing lasting changes to the way central government operates and to building support in the civil service for reform.

Mr Hancock has already shown himself an energetic minister, encouraging apprenticeships and promoting  business and innovation. He now faces big challenges, not only in achieving the large efficiency  savings which the Conservatives promised in their election manifesto, but also in extending digital government and further reforming the operation of Whitehall.

16.43

With the appointment of Ros Altman as Pensions Minister at DWP, it looks like we’re moving into the appointment of junior ministers not attending Cabinet.

The importance of junior ministers can often be overlooked in reshuffles, but they matter. In fact, the Pensions brief is a good example of that. As we wrote in one of our pre-election briefing papers, Turning Policy Priorities into Effective Change:

Often it is junior ministers who are better placed than secretaries of state to devote time to driving implementation: bringing external stakeholders on board, championing specific policies within departments, and monitoring progress… Given the important role junior ministers can play in driving implementation, there is a clear case for ensuring leadership continuity for important projects – as seen with the London Challenge schools programme under Stephen Twigg and pensions reform under Steve Webb.

16.38

A few people have been wondering why we’ve included some posts on our before and after chart (the one below) and not others. We’ve tried to focus on those ministers running departments (Secretaries of State, Minister for the Cabinet Office) and included others (such as the Chief Whip) where there have been moves within the Cabinet, including those attending Cabinet as well as full members.

16.33

Here’s a chart comparing the current gender balance of the Cabinet – both full members, and including those attending Cabinet – with the balance on 7 May:

16.15

One subject always of interest during reshuffles is the gender balance.

In 2009 David Cameron declared, ‘If elected, by the end of our first Parliament I want a third of all my ministers to be female’.  He failed to achieve this goal:  before 7 May 2015, only 23% of full cabinet ministers were women.

As of 4pm, he was still behind his target, although he is getting closer to it: 30% of full cabinet members are currently women. If we look at everyone attending Cabinet, 9 out of 29 are women (31%). Six of the 19 main Whitehall departments – not including Number 10 – are now led by a woman, one more than in Cameron’s last Cabinet.

 

16.02

Something that may interest DCLG and open policy-making types from our archives… Greg Clark, the new Secretary of State for DCLG, appears in a case study we did on open policy-making back in July 2012 while a more junior DCLG minister. It was all about the National Planning Policy Framework, and you can read it here.

15.47

One appointment which hasn’t been made (yet) is that of Deputy Prime Minister, the title held by Nick Clegg from 2010 to 2015. As the House of Commons Library notes in its briefing on the subject:

As with so much of the British constitution, the office and role of the Deputy Prime Minister has not been formalised, and there has certainly not been a presumption that the office would exist at all.

15.33

Something else all junior ministers at the Treasury might have to think about is getting legislation through parliament. Over the 2010-15 parliament, the Treasury passed the most bills, the most pages of legislation, and was responsible for some of the largest bills:

15.28

We were wondering about the slightly odd wording of the Prime Minister’s tweet earlier… Matt Hancock has been announced as the new Minister for the Cabinet Office and ‘Minister for Efficiency and Civil Service Reform’.

15.24

So Greg Hands is the new Chief Secretary to to the Treasury (more on the Treasury in our factsheet here).

One thing the Chief Secretary will need to think about is the next Spending Review. Our colleague Josh Harris, co-author of our report Preparing for the Next Spending Review, has this:

One of the first jobs for the new Treasury ministerial team will be planning for the Spending Review which needs to happen this year. George Osborne has done two reviews – in 2010, and a one-year Spending Round in 2013. But the challenges in 2015 are significant – and it’s crucial this spending review includes proper planning to ensure the decisions it makes are achieved.

A good place for Greg Hands, the new Chief Secretary, to start thinking about how to run the review would be the Institute for Government’s briefing note from autumn last year. Here’s a taster of what we talk about:

Resumed growth means that the post-election spending review will take place against a far more positive-sounding backdrop than either the 2010 Spending Review or the 2013 Spending Round. However, this fiscal consolidation is taking longer than the Government planned. Spending reductions are set to be a long-term feature of UK public finances, rather than a short and sharp experience.

Looking forward, more than half the planned spending cuts have yet to be made but there are substantial areas of public spending where pressures on public spending are far beyond the control of the Treasury – and in most cases this is because of increasing demand for public services.

These pressures on the sustainability of government spending, together with public opinion and political support, will come together in the post-election spending review.

15.19

Some more appointments: Stephen Crabb remains Welsh Secretary, David Mundell moves from being a junior minister at the Scotland Office to Scottish Secretary, while Greg Hands is the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury, attending Cabinet.

15.10

Oliver Letwin, now in ‘overall charge’ of the Cabinet Office, could have a big role to play in delivering the government’s manifesto promises. Our deputy director, Julian McCrae, wrote for ConservativeHome recently on ‘Four tests for establishing whether the new Government means to keep its manifesto promises’:

Any incoming government will face a big challenge – to keep its manifesto promises. From large infrastructure projects like HS2, to continuing the reform of schools, to building more homes, the Conservatives have made big commitments during the course of this campaign. And, of course, they are also committed to improving the day-to-day workings of government, finding Francis Maude’s £10bn of additional efficiency savings by 2017-18.

Making sure that Whitehall has the capacity to help deliver these promises will be essential. Previous governments have often found mid-term they are failing to achieve the changes they want, leading prime ministers to make colourful comments about getting things done in government, like Tony Blair’s “scars on my back”, and most recently David Cameron’s reference to the “buggeration factor”. Ensuring this does not happen in future will undoubtedly require the whole of Whitehall – both official and political – to improve how it does things. This takes time and persistence.

As Julian notes, ‘Fortunately, the next Government does not have to start from a blank sheet.’ You can read more at ConHome, or in our All In It Together.

14.57

We mentioned earlier (13.43) our interest in the Cabinet Office. The Prime Minister has just tweeted that ‘Oliver Letwin will become a full member of Cabinet and will be in overall charge of the Cabinet Office’. We’re currently taking that to mean that he is Minister for the Cabinet Office in the chart below. And you can find some basic facts for the department in our factsheet – it was one of only three departments to increase the staff in its managed department over the last parliament.

14.53

Giles Wilkes (see 14:42) tweets that ‘Whichever sucker is going to try to fill mine and@nickhillman‘s boots needs to study this picture’, which looks at the various SpAd relationships…

14.50

Jeremy Hunt remains Secretary of State for Health.

You can read our factsheet on the department here.

The Department has seen a significant shift in how it manages its resources over the last parliament. As we wrote in Whitehall Monitor 2014:

The Health and Social Care Act 2012 fundamentally changed how the Department of Health relates to the National Health Service. From April 2013, responsibility for managing the health service and the public health system moved to NHS England and Public Health England, respectively – both arm’s-length bodies. The department itself has moved to an assurance role: rather than directly managing and shaping the health system, it specifies strategic goals in framework agreements with these bodies. To what extent the actual management of such a politically sensitive area of public services will reflect this blueprint is yet to be seen, but in terms of the formal control over the system and resources funding it, health care is now at arm’s length from Whitehall.

14.42

Unsurprisingly, we’ve been focusing on ministers today. And we had a look at the Permanent Secretaries meeting them last week:

But we should also think about Special Advisers, those temporary civil servants able to work on more political matters for their ministers. Nick Hillman – a former SpAd to David Willetts – has just tweeted a link to his pamphlet for the Institute, In Defence of Special AdvisersYou can also read his Lib Dem ex-colleague, Giles Wilkes, on the same subject in his The Unelected Lynchpin: Why Government Needs Special Advisers.

14.34

Theresa Villiers is reappointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

This suggests that one of the possible machinery of government changes that’s been talked about – namely bringing the Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales Offices together – won’t happen.

We suggested the government might consider this in our report Governing in an Ever Looser Union, where we called for a more joined-up and strategic approach to devolution at the centre of governmentthough it’s an idea not without problems:

There are still three different jobs to be done in managing relations with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and overseeing changes to the respective settlements. Consequently, even if the territorial offices are merged into a single department, their separate policy teams and outward profiles should be retained. However, they are very small as stand-alone departments. Merging them could increase coherence and might also save costs by merging back office functions, though a proper analysis of the business case would be required to be certain of this.

For both political and practical reasons, retaining separate and full-time ministers of cabinet rank for each of the non-English territories will also be necessary for the foreseeable future. But these posts could potentially become ministers of state within the new merged departmental structure.

14.28

Justine Greening continues at DfID, leaving our Cabinet before-and-after chart looking like this:

DfID has some of the most engaged civil servants in government:

14.24

Greg Clark replaces Eric Pickles as Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government (DCLG).

DCLG saw the deepest reduction in staff numbers between Spending Review 2010 and the end of 2014.

Including its arm’s-length bodies, DCLG employs 2,350 civil servants, one of the smallest departmental groups. See our factsheet for more.

14.14

Anna Soubry has been appointed Minister of State for Small Business at BIS – she will attend Cabinet. She was previously a Minister of State at Defence.

Here’s our BIS factsheet.

14.04

Liz Truss continues as Secretary of State at Defra.

As you can see from our factsheet, it employs 2% of all civil servants, many of them in arm’s-length bodies. The managed department (excluding those ALBs) has seen a reduction in staff numbers of around 20% since the 2010 Spending Review:

13.56

Patrick McLoughlin continues as Secretary of State for Transport.

As you can see from our factsheet, DfT employs 4% of all civil servants, a lot of them in arm’s-length bodies like the DVLA:

13.49

There’s finally official confirmation that Iain Duncan Smith is continue as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, after some hours of media reporting that he’d stay on.

As we noted a few weeks ago, DWP was the most stable department in terms of ministers during the 2010-15 parliament, although both Tory Esther McVey and Lib Dem Steve Webb subsequently lost their seats at the election.

13.43

Given our objective to make government more effective, one of the appointments that most interests us here at the Institute for Government is the position of Minister for the Cabinet Office. As Julian McCrae, Josh Harris and Emily Andrews wrote in our recent report, All In It Together:

Political leaders must take this agenda seriously, because the success or failure of the government depends on it. Any improvement in Whitehall requires sustained drive over several years. Former government lead non-executive, John Browne, commented recently that good progress in Whitehall ‘can be undone as quickly as it is made”. But the Civil Service cannot make sustained progress on its own without political support. However serious Whitehall might be, immediate political priorities trump internal civil service reform efforts, so the two need to be aligned…

Without clear political leadership from the outset, whoever forms the next government runs the risk of having to revisit this agenda after losing the momentum and progress that has built up over the last five years. It will be clear whether this has happened within days of the appointment of new ministers.

Francis Maude held the role for all five years of the previous parliament. This is seen to be unusual. Here’s Maude talking to Civil Service World editor, Jess Bowie:

When, in 2007, Cameron appointed Maude to shadow the Cabinet Office brief, a ministerial portfolio that is traditionally seen as a stepping stone to more glamorous shores, it might have been disappointing for a Tory big beast. Yet this was the job Maude wanted – in opposition and in government after 2010. And he counts remaining in post for five years as his proudest achievement.

“No one else has stayed in this job for more than a year, I think,” he says. “There were huge numbers of occupants of the seat [under Labour] and one of the things that a lot of people in the civil service have said to me is: ‘We found a lot of what you wanted to do challenging but, actually, it’s the first time we’ve had a minister who’s been that interested, and cared about it.’

“That, I think, has been valuable. And now, we’ve worked with fantastic people in the civil service and shifted things along a lot. But there’s much more to do.”

Some New Labour Ministers for the Cabinet Office did hold the post for more than a year – but as this chart shows, the broad point about turnover is right:

13.17

According to the Prime Minister’s earlier tweet, we can probably expect some more appointments before too long. But why do we care about ministerial stability? In short, it’s about effectiveness.

As we wrote in our 2011 report, The Challenge of Being a Minister:

A real constraint on ministerial effectiveness is that many ministers do not stay in their posts long enough, as a result of over-frequent reshuffles. A consistent theme of our interviews – and in much of the research on ministers – was that the relatively short tenure of ministers in their posts can undermine their effectiveness. This point was made by ministers and those we interviewed working in industry. Few ministers are in the same job long enough to see a policy through from inception, via legislation, to implementation. Most ministers will only have around 27 months to do what they can; the average tenure between 1947 and 1997 was 26.8 months for junior ministers, 27.2 for ministers of cabinet rank, and 28 months for cabinet ministers.

The frequency of changes in important posts may be familiar but is still startling: during the 13 Labour years in office, there were six defence secretaries, eight trade and industry secretaries, eight business secretaries, and six home secretaries (including three in four years). These upheavals unquestionably damage the quality of government. Of course, there are big variations within governments. The top ministers, not only prime ministers but also Chancellors of the Exchequer and foreign secretaries, tend to serve longer than other secretaries of state. Until the 2010 election, there had been just seven chancellors in 31 years (serving respectively four years, six and a half years, one year, two and a half years, four years, over 10 years and nearly three years), and 10 foreign secretaries (one of whom served for six years, two for more than five years and one for four years). The unusual nature of the rapid turnover in some posts in the UK is vividly illustrated by a comparison with Germany… [S]ince 1949, Germany (including the former West Germany) has had just 15 ministers for the economy (not the same as finance), while the UK has had 35 ministers in the equivalent position (in the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills and its predecessors). And the UK has hardly had a superior industrial performance…

There is, of course, a fine balance between serving long enough and too long. Much depends on the performance of the minister. It is sensible to get rid of ministers who are manifestly not up to the job rather than leave them in post. And there are always casualties produced by scandals (either personal or in ministerial performance), as well as the accidents of life. The problem is, rather, the appearance of moving ministers around who have started to do a reasonable job and could make a larger impact if left there for another year.

13.01

Sadiq Khan, who has now resigned as Labour’s Shadow Justice Secretary, was the only Shadow Secretary of State to have held their post since October 2010, when Ed Miliband was elected leader of the Labour Party. That said, only in October 2011 did Ed Miliband have a free choice of his Shadow Cabinet appointments – before a rule change, Labour MPs got to vote in Shadow Cabinet elections.

Since October 2010, Labour has had five Shadow Ministers for the Cabinet Office. In that time, only one person – Francis Maude – has held the role in government.

12.37

Some Shadow Cabinet moves to report now.

With Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran having lost their seats, and Ed Miliband stepping down as leader, acting leader Harriet Harman has conducted a small reshuffle according to LabourList:

  • Chris Leslie, former Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, steps up to replace Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor
  • Leslie is replaced by another shadow junior Treasury minister, Shabana Mahmood
  • Hilary Benn replaces Alexander as Shadow Foreign Secretary, with shadow housing minister Emma Reynolds (already part of the Shadow Cabinet) succeeding Benn
  • Chris Bryant, already a shadow junior minister in the Culture, Media and Sport team, replaces Harman as Shadow Culture Secretary
  • Ian Murray replaces Margaret Curran as Shadow Scottish Secretary
  • Lord (Charlie) Falconer is the new Shadow Justice Minister, as Sadiq Khan has resigned.

12.06

While we wait for the next batch of appointments, let’s take a quick look at the election result from Thursday, in graphics.

Many people had expected no party to win more than 50% of the seats – it would have been the fifth election since 1918 where that had happened:

But in the event, the Conservatives took more than 50%, allowing them to form a majority government. This is the difference between the seats in 2010 (coalition) and 2015 (Tory majority):

The return to majority government after five years of coalition gives us this timeline – since 1918, 30 years have been spent under minority or coalition:

11.34

Taking stock, then, four Secretaries of State so far appointed – Gove at MoJ, Javid at BIS, Rudd at DECC and Whittingdale at DCMS – are new to those posts. Neither Rudd nor Whittingdale served in the Cabinet during 2010-15. Rudd has been promoted from within DECC, while the others are new to their departments (although Whittingdale was previously the chair of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee). No departments have been created or abolished.

How does this compare with Blair’s second term in 2001? In 2001, eight Secretaries of State were new to their role (if you include Alistair Darling). There were also a number of changes to departments, with the creation of DTLR (Transport, Local Government and the Regions) from the previous Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions; the creation of DWP from DSS and part of the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE); Defra emerging from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF); and DfEE becoming the Department for Education and Skills.

11.10

Here’s some analysis from one of our programme directors, Jill Rutter, on the importance of appointments:

It feels like David Cameron is taking his time appointing his Cabinet. But it makes sense to take time. The lack of effective central machinery to set priorities and control the agenda of departments, means that the power to appoint ministers is a critical piece of prime ministerial power as we argued in Centre Forward. But, as David Cameron’s predecessors have found, once those appointments are made they will all be subject to the “gravitational pull” of their department.

It’s important not only to get the right people in ministerial jobs (and the second term was when Mrs Thatcher finally managed to create the Cabinet she wanted). But it’s also good to make sure that the new appointees know what the Prime Minister’s priorities for their departments are. In 2005, Tony Blair sent letters to his appointees setting those out. Australian and Canadian prime ministers have done the same. You can read more about that in Centre Forward, but here is a taster:

“Do these letters work? They require both the prime minister and minister to take them seriously, Canadian prime ministers have traditionally invested significant time in the letters, returning to them in subsequent meetings with ministers to check on progress. Ministers in turn use them as a guide to what the PM requires of them to succeed in their post.”

One for David Cameron to consider?

 On the subject of taking time to appoint, Akash Paun looked at government formation times in our recent report, Westminster in an age of minorities. Even the ‘five days in May’ in 2010 were considerably shorter than most countries:

10.52

We’re not expecting any further appointments until lunch – but we’ve still got plenty of analysis coming.

For example, you can now read our factsheets on how many civil servants departments employ, the changes we’ve seen since 2010 and how happy they all are for these departments where Secretaries of State have been appointed:

Did you know, for example, that DWP is the biggest government department – employing one in five of all civil servants?

10.45

Sajid Javid has moved from DCMS to become the new Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills.

It looks like that will be it for appointments for a short while – David Cameron is off to address the 1922 Committee.

10.38

John Whittingdale MP, previously the chair of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee, is the new Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport.

DCMS civil servants have had an interesting time since 2010. Their engagement levels fell dramatically after the 2012 Olympics (when, incidentally, non-senior civil servants were at risk of redundancy), but have gone up again since.

10.26

One of the other things we’ll be keeping an eye out for today are machinery of government changes – whether departments are abolished, merged or created. As this chart shows, it’s been relatively calm over the last five years:

Our colleague Chris Wajzer has sent us this story from The Independent, speculating about possible changes to BIS (the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills). As you can see from the chart, it’s a policy area that’s seen a lot of changes over the last decade.

10.21

Priti Patel replaces Esther McVey, the only Tory Cabinet minister to lose her seat in the election. According to the historian Alun Wyburn-Powell, 2015 ranks third in the list of elections where Cabinet ministers lost their seats:

The previous record was in 1945 when the Conservatives went down to their landslide defeat at the hands of their wartime coalition partners, the Labour Party. Five Conservative cabinet ministers lost their seats in that election, including Harold Macmillan. However, he later returned and became prime minister.

10.15

Priti Patel has been appointed a Minister of State for Employment at DWP, Esther McVey’s old job.

Patel is the fourth person to serve as a Junior Minister in the Treasury since 2010 to have been promoted to the Cabinet.

10.11

Amber Rudd MP is the new Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, having been promoted from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Climate Change within DECC.

10.04

David Cameron has made two further announcements: Boris Johnson is to attend the Prime Minister’s ‘Political Cabinet’, and Baroness Tina Stowell is now a full member of the Cabinet rather than merely attending it as Leader of the House of Lords.

If you’re confused as to why some people are full members of the Cabinet and some ‘attend’ Cabinet, this briefing paper from the House of Commons Library on the limitations on the number of ministers may help.

09.45

As well as tracking ministerial moves today, we hope to give you some insight into the departments they’ll be leading. As we wrote in Whitehall Monitor 2014:

When people think of government departments (if they think of them at all), it is probably what they have in common that stands out – the department of this or the ministry of that, based somewhere in London SW1, that receives money from the Treasury, employs people to work on behalf of the Government and has a politician representing it around the Cabinet table, in Parliament and through the media to the public. But government departments in 2014 vary hugely in what they are, what they do, and how they do it.

We’ll be publishing ‘factsheets’ about the departments as their Secretaries of State are announced. So here’s a link to our factsheet for DfE, where Nicky Morgan will be continuing as Secretary of State. And here’s a taster – this is what’s happened to the Engagement Index in DfE since 2009 (essentially how civil servants feel about their department):

We looked at DfE’s engagement in much more detail in a previous blogpost – it was the only department to see its score fall every year to 2013, but recovered considerably last year across all the different themes:

09.25

Good morning, and welcome to day 2 of the Institute for Government’s government formation live-blog. We’ll be bringing you the latest on the formation of David Cameron’s new majority government in charts. The Prime Minister has said he will complete his Cabinet reshuffle today:

 

You can catch up with day 1 of our live blog, from Friday, here.

Of course, we say day 2… the Prime Minister made some Cabinet appointments over the weekend, with Nicky Morgan remaining Education Secretary, Michael Gove taking the helm at the Ministry of Justice, Chris Grayling becoming Leader of the Commons, and Mark Harper becoming chief whip. Our chart below shows the confirmed Cabinet movements so far with dark blue lines and dark blue dots.

(There are lots of reports that Iain Duncan Smith will remain Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, but we won’t be updating our chart until either David Cameron’s Twitter account, the Number 10 Twitter account, or the Cabinet Office confirm it.)

17.29

That’s it from us tonight. Thanks for reading, and we’ll be back with more charts when further appointments are made.

Have a good weekend!

17.26

David Cameron has helpfully let us know that that’s it for tonight. But we have some weekend reading for him on managing a small majority.

First, our director, Peter Riddell, notes that ‘Second terms can be times of great achievement for prime ministers. But with a slim majority there can be hidden dangers too’ and sets out some of the likely challenges.

Second, our colleague Jill Rutter writes about her ringside experience of governing with a small majority – as a civil servant in John Major’s Policy Unit from 1992. Here’s an extract:

The government lived on a knife edge. Every time a confidence vote loomed Sarah Hogg, who ran the Policy Unit, would summon the special advisers and warn them that they might lose their jobs the next day. Longer-term thinking was repeatedly overtaken by the need for short-term fixing.

But away from Westminster freneticism, the day to day business of government proceeded. There are lots of things governments can do without troubling Parliament. Initiatives such as the Citizen’s Charter, the first moves to resolve 30 years of stalemate in Northern Ireland, and the forced institution of a new regime of economic management post-ERM exit – inflation targets and more openness on interest rates – could all be achieved without going to Parliament. With a small – or absent – majority, there are clear attractions to going to Parliament less.

In many ways John Major had it easier than David Cameron will now. Major started off with a majority of 21 – greater than Cameron appears likely to achieve. And he did not face challenges with such explosive potential as an EU referendum and a new internal constitutional settlement. The next few years will be a major test of David Cameron’s political skills.

17.20

The Ministry of Defence, which Michael Fallon continues to lead, has experienced quite a transformation since 2010 in how it manages its resources.

This from our colleague, Jonathan Pearson, on a speech Fallon gave in January 2015:

The MOD has had an evolving relationship with the private sector as a purchaser of materiel and services and through partnerships with the private sector. This has helped it approach the target of £4.3 billion of efficiency savings outlined in the 2010 Spending Review.

Here’s a graphic showing the proposed, and actual, changes in how MoD procures and manages its materiel:

17.15

Michael Fallon remains Secretary of State for Defence.

17.08

Continuity very much the theme of this ‘reshuffle’ so far – Philip Hammond remains Foreign Secretary.

17.02

Sorry – slight issue with that chart. Here’s an updated version – dark blue lines show confirmed appointments.

16.57

Theresa May remains as Home Secretary.

16.54

Some papers have speculated that Osborne will play a major role in EU negotiations from the Treasury. This is from our colleague Jill Rutter:

This continues a trend to move departmental responsibility for the UK’s relations with the EU away from the FCO to the Treasury.  In particular, in recent years the Foreign Office has seen the Treasury put a lock on two key roles:

  • First, head of the European and Global Issues Secretariat (EGIS) in the Cabinet Office – where the last 3 appointees have all been career Treasury men. That role is now occupied by former Treasury 2nd Permanent secretary Sir Tom Scholar.
  • More recently the Treasury has also taken over the top post at the UK Brussels representation (UKREP): Sir Ivan Rogers replaced another former Treasury official, Sir Jon Cunliffe, when the latter became Deputy Governor of the Bank of England.

When Rogers was appointed, I wrote that it was a “decisive shift to recognising that the UK’s policy on the EU is a crucial part of domestic economic policy – rather than “foreign” policy requiring a lifetime of honing diplomatic skills – and more speculatively that the Treasury’s institutional euroscepticism is a better fit with the current UK approach to European matters”.

 The Chancellor’s move to centre stage continues the marginalisation of the FCO on European matters.

16.48

According to the Prime Minister, George Osborne continues as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He’s also been made First Secretary of State, a title previously held by William Hague.

So this incredibly exciting chart gives us the current state of play in terms of ministers moving from the previous government:

Ministerial moves 1645

16.28

The Institute has just tweeted a link to six papers with recommendations as to how to be an effective government from day one in office. They are:

 

16.04

With all 650 constituency results now in, here’s the composition of the House of Commons after the 2010 and 2015 General Elections. This is what the difference between a coalition and a majority government looks like:

House of Commons after 2010 and 2015 General Elections

15.27

While we await ministerial appointments, here’s some more on possible machinery of government changes. The Sunday Times reported a few weeks ago that nine departments could be abolished (£):

Civil service sources said as many as nine of the 24 current departments could be abolished. “Fifteen is the minimum number [of remaining departments] they are looking at,” said one senior Whitehall source. 

This was what our director of research, Tom Gash, had to say in a post based on our recent Reshaping Government report:

a prime minister should only pursue restructuring after extensive discussions and following production of a business case assessing the operating rationale for the change, setting estimated costs and benefits, discussing alternatives to structural change and implementation issues. This will require improved central capabilities to advise on such changes. Without copying the rigidity of the American system, Parliament should also be involved – with relevant select committees scrutinising any proposals, and the House of Commons having a vote on substantial changes. Because changes should be considered and planned in advance, any new government elected in May should not make structural changes to departments in its first weeks unless its plans have been announced and debated before the election…

…In short, restructuring can sound like a quick fix to some of government’s problems. But it isn’t.

15.07

While we wait to see what David Cameron’s going to do, let’s see what one of his predecessors did.  The last incumbent Prime Minister to serve a second term was, of course, Tony Blair. Here’s some analysis from Emily Andrews:

When Blair formed his second government in 2001, he rang the changes:  creating new departments as well as moving the Cabinet team around.

Alistair Darling’s brief as Secretary of State for Social Security was enlarged, taking on additional responsibility for employment at the newly-formed Department for Work and Pensions. Following the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak of 2001, the Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food was broken up, and its Secretary of State – Nick Brown – moved to a non-Cabinet post in DWP.  John Prescott remained Deputy Prime Minister, but the department he previously led – the Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions – ceased to exist.

Seven of Blair’s Cabinet Ministers led the same department after the election as they had before.  Jack Straw was moved into the Foreign Office, making way for David Blunkett to be promoted from Education to the Home Office.  Tessa Jowell, Patricia Hewitt and Estelle Morris all gained their first Cabinet posts in 2001. 

Tony Blair had a reputation for being an arch-shuffler, but the rate of Cabinet turnover under Cameron has been very similar to Blair’s first term.  However, freed from the restrictions of coalition, might our new-old Prime Minister exercise some more freedom in shuffling in the years to come?

14.51

The Guardian’s Nicholas Watt is reporting that we can expect some key Cabinet ministers to be appointed this afternoon, before a break for the weekend:

 

 

Two of those posts – George Osborne at the Treasury, Theresa May at the Home Office – saw no change during the 2010-15 government, while two people held the position of Foreign Secretary and three defence:

Emily Andrews took a closer look at what happened to ministers in the last government – at Cabinet level and below – in a blogpost a few weeks ago.

14.39

In many respects this is a reshuffle as much as a new government being formed. While we wait for news of ministerial appointments, why not have a read of Akash Paun’s 2012 report, Reshuffling the Pack?

Here’s an extract:

The reshuffle is one of the most potent weapons in the prime ministerial armoury – albeit one that can occasionally explode in the face of the person using it. Enacting legislation, implementing public service reform, or rooting out government waste can take months or years, with no guarantee of success. But on reshuffle day a prime minister, in principle, wields unlimited power.

In practice, things can feel rather different, as prime ministers are confronted by a range of constraints. Even when a PM does formulate a bold plan to remould the cabinet, there is much that can and often does go wrong. Reshuffles also carry political risks for prime ministers, given the inevitable creation of enemies and disappointed allies on the backbenches.

From a personal point of view, the reshuffle can be draining too: past leaders have described having to break the bad news as “a ghastly business” (Tony Blair), “the most distasteful…of all the tasks which fall to the lot of a prime minister” (Clement Attlee), and “something you have to grit your teeth to do” (Margaret Thatcher).

Yet, perhaps surprisingly, most recent prime ministers have carried out reshuffles on a near annual basis, calculating that the political benefits can outweigh the risks and the sheer unpleasantness of the experience. 

We’ve previously  live-blogged the government reshuffle in July 2014, and also compared Cameron’s first four years with Blair’s.

14.19

Once appointed, ministers will be greeted by their Permanent Secretary, the most senior civil servant in each government department. But who are they?

Let us introduce you. Yesterday, Jill Rutter and Dan Devine found that Permanent Secretaries are slightly more female than in 2010, with around the same level of experience – but only Sir Nick Macpherson at the Treasury was in his department at the last election.

Permanent Secretary Timeline

14.04

As well as ministerial moves, we’ll be keeping an eye out for machinery of government changes – where government departments are merged, created, or abolished.

Department changes in Whitehall 1979-2015 - smaller

In his first term, David Cameron didn’t make any major changes at department level. But there has been a lot of speculation that there could be some changes this time round.

This is what we said in our pre-election briefing paper on ‘Making a strong start to government’:

“Ensure any structural reforms have a clear operational purpose: New prime ministers should be wary of abolishing and creating new departments unless the proposals have been considered at length beforehand and a strong business case exists. Otherwise, they risk costly upheavals, and diversion of effort and resources. The ill-fated Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills, for instance, lasted just two years (2007-2009) and incurred initial start-up costs of just over £15 million.”

13.23

David Cameron has been Prime Minister of a coalition government for the last five years. His statement outside 10 Downing Street makes it clear he will now head a majority government.

Since 1918, most British governments have been majorities – thirty years have been spent under minority or coalition government.

Government types

13.11

So, these were the ministers in government departments before polls closed yesterday:

Government ministers, 7 May 2015

We’ll keep you updated with all the moves.

13.03

David Cameron has now left Buckingham Palace and will soon begin the task of forming a new government.

Prime Ministers, 1945 to 2020 (projected)

Welcome to the afternoon after the election night before, and our Whitehall Monitor live-blog. We’ll be bringing you the latest developments as David Cameron forms his new government – or rather, reshuffles his existing government – in charts.

Which ministers have moved where? What will the gender balance of the government look like? And what might happen to government departments? We’ll be keeping an eye on all that, and providing insights from across the Institute for Government’s work.

18.13

One final graph from us tonight: based on today’s announcements, this is now the gender balance of the Conservative part of the Government. We’ve got a percentage version, as well as an absolute number version.

Thank you to everyone who’s tweeted and retweeted, to Andrew Sparrow whose excellent blog sent many readers our way, and to our colleagues here at the IfG for their expertise and support.

Until the next reshuffle… or the next release of government data, which we’ll analyse as part of Whitehall Monitor.

Gender 1810

18.00

Here’s how the Whips’ Offices, law officers and leaders of the two Houses of Parliament look after today’s reshuffle:

Minor 1800

17.56

Another appointment: Tobias Ellwood becomes Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the FCO. Judging by the Prime Minister’s latest tweet – which links to a full list of today’s announcements – that might be it for the day. Here’s our final (hopefully) department graph:

Government 1755

17.33

One thing we’ve not analysed today is something David Cameron hasn’t done as part of any of his reshuffles, and that’s make big changes to the Machinery of Government.

The roles of a number of departments have changed significantly since 2010, and structures within and between them have changed: think equalities moving into the Home Office (and latterly DCMS), constitutional affairs going to the Deputy PM at the Cabinet Office, financial forecasts leaving the Treasury for the OBR and media regulation swapping BIS for DCMS, or various changes to arm’s-length bodies. But we have the same government departments in 2014 as we did in 2009.

A previous report by the Institute with the LSE, Making and Breaking Whitehall Departments (2010), includes this helpful graphic of changes between 1979 and 2009:

Making and Breaking

17.18

Away from the ministerial reshuffle was the news that Sir Bob Kerslake is departing as Head of the Civil Service, and will be stepping down as Perm Sec of DCLG in February:

Here’s a short extract from Peter’s blog:

The real problems in the civil service leadership are structural. It was right in January 2012 to split the functions of Cabinet Secretary and Civil Service Head since no one could perform both roles. However, it was a mistake for Sir Bob to double-hat as Head of the Civil Service and a departmental Permanent Secretary. That created impossible pressures on him, and, in this position, he never had the powers or authority to lead the changes expected of him.

And here’s our graphic of Permanent Secretaries since 2010:

Perm Secs 2010-14

17.09

I suspect I’m on safer ground with this one – unless there are any dramatic late changes at Cabinet level. Based on today, and assuming no changes between now and General Election 2015, this is what the Secretaries of State for key departments would look like, 2010-2015.

Today’s changes mean MoD, Defra and Wales are now on their third Secretary of State of the parliament, joining Scotland, DfT and DCMS.

Hague’s replacement by Hammond at the Foreign Office makes it the first of the great offices of state to change hands since May 2010. The other change was Nicky Morgan taking over DfE from Michael Gove, the new Chief Whip.

Cabinet 1700

17.04

I knew I was asking for trouble… two more appointments: Sam Gymiah appointed Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at DfE, Jo Johnson promoted to Minister of State at the Cabinet Office:

Government 1705

16.57

This is a graph of ministerial changes within core departments. The pink shows people new to their posts today – which is quite a lot of them…

As we pointed out earlier (12:14 with reference to the Treasury), this doesn’t capture where people have been promoted within a department, or have other experience of working there.

Government 1655

16.31

I’m wary of doing this, just in case there’s another flurry of announcements, but it’s beginning to feel like the reshuffle is over – and, therefore, time for some summary posts.

This is what has happened to the gender balance of the Conservative part of the Government during this reshuffle. Top line – we’ve gone from three full female members of the Cabinet, plus two attending, to five full members, plus three attending:

Gender 1630

16.17

Five appointments to the Whips’ Office in the Commons – Mel Stride, Therese Coffey, Ben Wallace and Damian Hinds as well as Alun Cairns – leave our graph of the Whips, law officers and House leaders looking like this:

Minor 1615

16.07

So much for that winding-down… Alun Cairns has been appointed as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Wales, and a Government Whip:

Government 1605

15.49

Norman Smith for the BBC is reporting that that might be it for the reshuffle. We’ll bring you some summaries in a bit, but first:

15.42

And here’s how the Cabinet looked between 2005 and 2010. Some key points:

  • Only Des Browne (Defence) and Peter Hain (Wales) kept the same post when Brown took over from Blair as Prime Minister
  • Blair’s final unforced reshuffle was quite extensive – 10 of the posts on our chart changed hands
  • There are lots of machinery of government changes, especially around the Business brief.
Blair and Brown 2005-10

15.29

I mentioned earlier that we’d recently compared the first four years of reshuffles by Tony Blair and David Cameron. That comparison suggested that they were both relatively similar in the amount of shuffling they did, but later New Labour terms saw a bit more churn.

Here’s a graphic of Cabinet ministers for key departments, 2001-2005.

Blair 2001-05

14.59

According to GOV.UK, it looks like Baroness Stowell is now down as attending Cabinet, rather than a full member. That gives five full female members plus three attending, and not six plus two as it appeared earlier.

14.49

Brandon Lewis has been promoted to Minister of State at DCLG.

Government 1450

14.32

Why does ministerial stability matter? It seems civil servants and ministers agree on the benefits – this is from A Game of Two Halves:

Reflecting on the lack of changes since May 2010, many civil servants are pleased with this period of relative stability: “From a Civil Service perspective, I think it’s quite refreshing seeing ministers in a job for as long as you would expect somebody to be in a job for in the real world” [senior civil servant interviewed by the IfG]. [Former Labour minister Pat] McFadden agrees that “it takes you six months to get your head around the department anyway; so if you’ve got a new secretary of state after a year, you’ve got to start that process again”.

But there are times when reshuffles may be necessary:

…while the frequency of reshuffles in past governments tended to be disruptive and counterproductive, there are times when a judicious reallocation of ministerial portfolios can help to give an administration a new lease of life. Reshuffles also serve as an effective form of performance management of current and aspiring ministers, and can also counteract the tendency of ministers to “go native” in their departments.

A Game of Two Halves

There is ‘a fine balance between serving long enough and too long’:

A common civil service view is that ministers are “most effective after a year, but not the opposite extreme of being stuck for five or six years”. A minister commented: 

“You can’t do anything in 18 months [one estimate of the average tenure] – but three or four years is a bit long because you come round to things you have done before. There is a tendency to lose energy. Two or three years is probably about optimal.” 

A senior civil servant agreed: “A reasonable amount of time in post is hugely important – 18 months at a minimum and two and a half years [is] good.”

The Challenge of Being a Minister

14.16

This is the Tory part of the Government’s gender composition, as of 14:15:

Gender 1415

14.13

Ed Vaizey has been promoted from Parliamentary Under Secretary at DCMS to Minister of State at DCMS and BIS (he was a Parliamentary Under Secretary jointly between those two departments at the beginning of the Parliament). That means DCMS joins Wales, Northern Ireland, Transport, Education, DfID, Defra and MoJ in not having anybody in the same job as they were prior to the October 2012 reshuffle.

Brooks Newmark has been appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary at the Cabinet Office. That means only the Scotland Office has yet to see a new appointment today.

Government 1415

13.58

George Freeman becomes Parliamentary Under Secretary at BIS and Health, Andrew Murrison becomes Parliamentary Secretary at the Northern Ireland Office (moving from MoD):

Government 1355

13.48

Desmond Swayne to DfID (Minister of State) and Julian Brazier to MoD (Parliamentary Under Secretary) leave our department graph looking like this:

Government 1345

13.39

Robert Buckland is the new Solicitor General, replacing Oliver Heald. That’s quite a turnover of law officers, with Jeremy Wright having replaced Dominic Grieve as Attorney General. Of the law officers, only Lord Wallace of Tankerness – the Advocate General for Scotland – remains from initial appointments in May 2010.

Minor 1340

13.35

As we saw earlier, Sir Bob Kerslake is to depart as Head of the Civil Service. However, he’ll remain as Permanent Secretary at DCLG until February next year.

There’s been quite a lot of change to Perm Secs since the 2010 General Election, as you can see from the chart below. We think that covers everyone, but let us know if you think not.

Perm Secs 2010-14

13.22

Nick Gibb is returning to government as a Minister of State at DfE. He was previously a Minister of State at DfE, 2010-12.

37.5% of DfE ministers are new to their posts today.

Government 1320

13.15

A couple of interesting links on the gender composition of government and parliament:

And:

12.54

As of now, this is a graph of when government ministers took up their current post – including a new Secretary of State in the Wales Office, and new ministers in positions at DECC, DfT and BIS:

Government 1255

12.36

Appointments for Amber Rudd (now Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at DECC) and Penny Mordaunt (at DCLG) mean our gender graph looks like this at lunchtime:

Gender 1235

12.30

Back to the Civil Service reshuffle, and the departure of Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service. He’s now written about it on his blog.

12.28

Claire Perry becomes a Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Transport, the second appointment at DfT today after John Hayes.

Priti Patel is the new Exchequer Secretary, replacing the promoted David Gauke on the Treasury’s ladder to higher ministerial office.

Government 1230

12.19

Anna Soubry’s promotion to Minister of State (from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State) at the MoD changes our gender graph again. There is now one female Minister of State not attending Cabinet, as there was before the reshuffle started.

Gender 1220

12.14

David Gauke has been promoted to Financial Secretary to the Treasury, from his previous role as Exchequer Secretary. He replaces DfE-bound Nicky Morgan. John Hayes has added Minister of State for Transport to his portfolio as, er, Minister of State without Portfolio at the Cabinet Office.

One thing our graphs don’t capture is moves within a department (they just show when people were new to their current post). It’s interesting to note that Gauke, Morgan and before them Sajid Javid all rose through the various ranks at the Treasury.

Government 1215

12.06

Some other important news in the midst of the reshuffle: it’s been reported that Sir Bob Kerslake is to depart as the Head of the Civil Service. The Institute has just released a statement from our director, Peter Riddell, which begins:

The Prime Minister now has an opportunity to correct past mistakes and ensure there is a leadership structure at the top of the Civil Service that works now and for the long-term. The role of the Head of the Civil Service is important for the effectiveness of government and for the successful delivery of the Prime Minister’s priorities. The position carries enormous responsibilities and is a full-time job that requires a full- time appointment, separate from the Cabinet Secretary.

11.56

Gender update: with Baroness Stowell becoming Leader of the Lords, we have six female full Cabinet ministers and two women attending Cabinet. That’s up from three full members and two attending before the reshuffle started.

Gender 1155

11.45

The reshuffle is now well into more junior ministerial ranks. I linked earlier to Emma Norris’s piece on why junior ministers matter, but here’s more from the archive.

As we noted in The Challenge of Being a Minister:

Secretaries of state have dominated the discussion on ministerial performance in previous studies and memoirs. But there are four times as many junior ministers as those in the cabinet and their role has often been neglected… Ministers of state and under-secretaries often play a very important role in delivering change and implementing policies – and they are, of course, the cabinet ministers of the future, even if only a few make it that far. But their appointment can often be haphazard. Prime ministers do not – in the view of both ministers and civil servants – give enough attention to junior ministerial posts. In our interviews, ministers and civil servants were in complete agreement about the often random and arbitrary way in which such ministers are appointed and dismissed. Not only is there little attention to which minister has the appropriate experience and skills for a post, but prime ministers often negotiate with powerful secretaries of state keen to protect their allies and protégés. In other cases, weaker or new heads of departments had no real say in the choice of junior ministers: “it all depends on your place in the pecking order”, as one cabinet minister ruefully noted about the bargaining and bartering that went on for the most promising junior ministers ahead of any reshuffle.

The incentives for junior ministers to make their mark are also interesting. Nick Raynsford MP told the Public Administration Select Committee back in 2006:

“[Ministers are] assumed to have to make their mark within a year or two… they are going to want to do something quickly. The last thing they are going to want to do is to focus on maintaining a programme that is going to take 10 years to produce results when they will not be there to get the benefit of the praise. That, I think, is an insidious culture.”

11.40

The Prime Minister has announced that Mike Penning has been appointed Minister of State at Home Office and MoJ (moving from the same rank at DWP), and Nick Boles has been appointed as Minister of State at BIS and DfE (a promotion from Parliamentary Under Secretary for Planning at DCLG). The departing Damian Green was previously a Minister of State across HO and MoJ, the promoted Matt Hancock at BIS and DfE.

Mark Harper is also to return to government as Minister of State at DWP.

Government 1140

11.30

With Matthew Hancock attending Cabinet, here’s the current gender composition of the Conservatives in government:

Gender 1130

11.22

Matt Hancock replaces Michael Fallon as Minister of State at DECC and BIS and Minister for Portsmouth (no, really).

Government 1120

11.15

Right on cue… the Prime Minister announces Jeremy Wright MP is to be the new Attorney General.

Minor 1115

11.12

So far we’ve been focusing on the core ministerial departments, but there have been changes to the Whips and Leaders of both Commons and Lords (Baroness Stowell is to replace Lord Hill, David Cameron’s nomination for European Commissioner). We’ll add law officers to this graph when we know what’s happening there, with Attorney General Dominic Grieve and Solicitor General Oliver Heald reported to have gone.

Minor 1110

10.50

With the Prime Minister now confirming Stephen Crabb’s promotion within the Welsh Office to Secretary of State for Wales, our projected Cabinet to 2015 looks like this:

Cabinet 1050

10.48

Greg Clark has been appointed as Minister for Universities and Science at BIS, in addition to his current role as Minister for Cities and Constitution at the Cabinet Office. Our graph of when people took up their government posts now looks like this:

Government 1050

10.42

Esther McVey attending Cabinet means that, as of 10:40, there are five female full Cabinet members, and two women attending Cabinet. Before the reshuffle, it was three full members and two attending.

Gender 1040

10.33

Esther McVey is to attend Cabinet in her current role as Minister of State at DWP. That changes our gender composition graph a bit, which we’ll update shortly.

While we do that, here’s the House of Commons Library with some information on the limits to Cabinet, and government, appointments – for example, there can only be 22 full Cabinet members.

10.20

Reshuffles can be difficult for those doing the shuffling as well as those being (or at risk of being) shuffled. And it’s not just David Cameron:

…past leaders have described having to break the bad news as “a ghastly business” (Tony Blair), “the most distasteful…of all the tasks which fall to the lot of a prime minister” (Clement Attlee), and “something you have to grit your teeth to do” (Margaret Thatcher).

Tony Blair was apparently a weak ‘butcher’ when it came to reshuffle day:

On one occasion, Keith Vaz was called in to see the PM, who spent half an hour telling the delighted Vaz what a good job he was doing as Minister for Europe. As he left the office, it was left to Jonathan Powell to break the bad news.

Shuffling the Pack, following Andrew Rawnsley’s The End of the Party

10.14

The appointments so far mean that five women (May, Greening, Villiers, Truss and Morgan) are now full members of the Cabinet, as opposed to three before the reshuffle. Michael Fallon’s appointment to MoD means the wait for a first female Defence Secretary continues.

Gender 1015

10.06

Here’s one from the archive: our director, Peter Riddell, interviews Michael Heseltine about reshuffles and ministerial effectiveness.

10.00

Michael Fallon’s appointment as Defence Secretary leaves our projected Cabinet graph looking like this:

Cabinet 1000

09.56

As of now, and considering only those appointments announced by the Prime Minister on Twitter, these are when ministers in core government departments took up their posts:

Government 0955

09.48

As my colleague Cath Haddon points out, despite their earlier health warning (‘This page may not reflect all the latest ministerial changes’), GOV.UK do seem to be having a good go at live updates.

09.45

In our analysis, we’ll be distinguishing between what we call ‘unforced’ and ‘forced’ reshuffles:

  • Unforced reshuffles are where the PM has chosen to freshen up their government and has a relatively free hand. They’ve not been forced into it by a resignation. These are the ones we’re concentrating on.
  • Forced reshuffles are where a PM has had to make changes because of a ministerial resignation.

Here’s a list of those since 1997 – let us know if we’ve missed any:

Reshuffles since 1997

09.41

So far we’ve concentrated on Secretaries of State (as those are the moves currently being announced). But we’ll also be looking at junior ministers. My colleague Emma Norris blogged yesterday on why junior ministers are important:

Good junior ministers who have stuck with a policy for some time have knowledge of the detail and of why decisions and compromises have been made, hold strong relationships with people outside government, and have a keen awareness of and ability to manage the politics of implementation. Changes and churn can destabilise this. To date, junior ministers under this government have benefited from some measure of stability.

09.34

Liz Truss becomes the third Secretary of State at Defra since 2010:

Cabinet 0935

09.31

With Nicky Morgan being promoted to Education Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities, here’s some more background on women in Parliament (figures courtesy of the House of Commons Library). This graph shows the percentage of MPs that were women elected in every general election since 1918:

GE since 1918

09.25

Nicky Morgan’s appointment as Education Secretary leaves the (projected) Cabinet looking like this:

Cabinet 0925

09.23

As the new appointments start trickling out on twitter – the social media equivalent of Vatican white smoke – we should explain why we care about reshuffles.

As Akash Paun noted in Shuffling the Pack (August 2012):

Typically, reshuffles are interpreted through a narrow political lens. But a broader test that should be applied is whether reshuffles have any impact on the effectiveness, the performance or the policy direction of the government.

As we wrote in The Challenge of Being a Minister (May 2011):

A real constraint on ministerial effectiveness is that many ministers do not stay in their posts long enough, as a result of over-frequent reshuffles. A consistent theme of our interviews – and in much of the research on ministers – was that the relatively short tenure of ministers in their posts can undermine their effectiveness. This point was made by ministers and those we interviewed working in industry. Few ministers are in the same job long enough to see a policy through from inception, via legislation, to implementation. Most ministers will only have around 27 months to do what they can; the average tenure between 1947 and 1997 was 26.8 months for junior ministers, 27.2 for ministers of cabinet rank, and 28 months for cabinet ministers.

09.18

By way of context, I wrote a few weeks ago comparing the first four years of changes at Cabinet level under the Coalition government and under Tony Blair’s first term (1997-2001). We looked at Secretaries of States of departments or equivalent, excluding whips, law officers and a few others.

The graphs show relatively similar levels of stability – Cameron (thus far) has had 1.74 Secretaries of State per department (33 in 19), while Blair had 1.88 (30 in 16).

In a sense, this may come as a surprise. Cameron is widely congratulated on keeping reshuffles to a minimum and Blair often regarded as a serial shuffler, but both of their first terms were relatively stable. As we’ll see later, though, looking at the 13 years of New Labour government gives a different picture.

Here’s the Blair graph:

Blair 1997-2001

09.16

Michael Gove’s move to chief whip leaves a vacancy as Secretary of State at the Department for Education:

Cabinet 0915

09.10

The Prime Minister has confirmed Philip Hammond’s appointment as Foreign Secretary, replacing William Hague (now Leader of the House of Commons):

Cabinet 0910

09.07

There’s been a lot of coverage about the gender composition of the government in the run-up to the reshuffle, which we’ll be keeping an eye on.

In the meantime, based on this helpful research from the House of Commons Library, here are a couple of charts giving the number of women in the House of Commons:

Gender

08.58

One key graphic we’ll be updating throughout the day is when ministers across key departments took up their posts. This is what it looked like before the reshuffle got underway yesterday. DCMS’s post-October 2013 influx includes both Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan, who came in following Maria Miller’s resignation in April 2014, but also Jo Swinson returning from maternity leave to replace her Lib Dem colleague Jenny Willott, who was covering for her.

Departmental churn - pre-July 2014 reshuffle

08.54

A quick note on what data we’re using – and how we’re using it. The sources we’ve used are:

As today’s reshuffle takes place, we’ll be keeping an eye on the Number 10 twitterfeed, which has announced the last few reshuffles, and David Cameron’s own twitterfeed, as well as announcements on GOV.UK.

Mind you, GOV.UK does carry a rather understated health warning this morning:

Gov DOT UK

08.49

There were some significant exits announced last night – not least William Hague as foreign secretary. Other Cabinet changes include David Jones leaving the Wales Office and, according to many reports, Owen Patterson leaving Defra.

If we assume that there are no further reshuffles between now and 2015 (a big assumption, not least given rumours about a Lib Dem reshuffle in the autumn), the leadership of core Whitehall departments to 2015 would look like this:

Cabinet 0850

07.46

Morning everyone. The latest – and possibly last – reshuffle by David Cameron has begun. As the Prime Minister shuffles his ministerial cards, we’ll be on hand to analyse and visualise what he’s dealt out.

We won’t be speculating on rumours or the political ins-and-outs of the reshuffle (for that, try Andrew Sparrow at The Guardian, the Spectator’s live-blog or the BBC). Instead, we’ll be bringing you context and consequences through figures, graphs and charts – and some greatest hits from previous IfG reports.

15.43

Update: Matt Korris, senior researcher at the Hansard Society, has kindly been in touch with the full dataset. It gives answers to the question ‘Which of these statements best describes your opinion on the present system of governing Britain?’ by party support (including smaller parties, and those undecided or not voting). The data is available in the SPSS data files.

Using the fuller data gives this updated graph:
Graph with data about responses to a question about the effectiveness of the system of government

It shows even more clearly the reversal of Tory and Labour views on whether our system of government works well following the change of government in 2010. Also striking is the fall for all parties in Audit 2010, conducted after the expenses scandal. Lib Dems think our system of government works well even while they are in opposition, closely matching and even surpassing Labour between 2007 and 2010, although the sample size of Lib Dem supporters is small.

Matt also explains the different wording – ‘voting intention’ versus ‘party political support’ – between some of the surveys:

“The calculation is done on the basis of 2 separate questions – the second of which gets asked to anyone who doesn’t give a party in answer to the first question, to help boost the numbers giving an opinion. As I understand it, this is a standard VI question format among polling companies.

Q.1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Q.2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

The results of the two questions are combined to provide the derived results. What you choose to label that derived result as is subjective, hence the wording difference on the tables.”

Matt also points out a graph from Audit 2012 (part 1, page 20) which charts the ‘system of government’ question against a more general ‘satisfaction with government’ question asked by Ipsos MORI – as the numbers believing the governing system needs improvement increase, the general satisfaction drops.

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