100 days of solitude: progress since the decision to leave the EU

Whitehall

In Whitehall both political leadership and civil service machinery have evolved rapidly. Remember the ‘Brexit Unit’? It didn’t outlast its creator (David Cameron) and instead Theresa May converted it into a new Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU), led by David Davis. She also added a new Department for International Trade, led by Liam Fox.

Despite reports of a ‘turf war’ between Fox and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, and the Prime Minister ‘slapping down’ Brexit ministers speaking out of turn, the new Brexit departments have started to become established. They have built up senior teams, started to acquire staff and commissioned analysis from other departments on the risks and opportunities of Brexit. But while there’s been plenty of activity across Whitehall, we still don’t have a clear idea of what kind of ‘Brexit’ the UK Government wants or when we can expect to find out. Liam Fox has talked about leaving the EU customs union, Boris Johnson has thrown around dates for triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and Phillip Hammond has said it’s all ‘very difficult”’.

What we do know is that Theresa May is clear that triggering Article 50 will ultimately be her decision.

Westminster

Shortly after the referendum, a number of legal challenges were mounted to prevent the Government from triggering Article 50 without seeking Parliamentary approval. The High Court will hear the case on 17 October.

Committees in the House of Lords have launched and begun to take evidence to inform a range of inquiries examining the process to achieve and implications of Brexit – including from David Davis.

By contrast, the Commons has been engaged in debate about which committee should take the high-profile prize of leading Commons scrutiny of Brexit – with the Foreign Affairs, European Scrutiny and Treasury committees all pitching for the role. With the outline of a new Brexit committee only just agreed, it is unlikely its Chair and members will be in place before November.

Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast

One of Theresa May’s first acts on becoming Prime Minister was to meet political leaders in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, and to assure them that she would not trigger Article 50 until she found a ‘common UK approach’.

Those leaders responded with their own visions for Brexit, with Carwyn Jones and Nicola Sturgeon calling for continued access to the Single Market, and a joint letter from the leaders of the Northern Ireland Executive warning against a ‘hard’ border with the Republic.

While the UK Government has made commitments to the devolved administrations, it is not yet clear what (if any) formal role they will have in ratifying the final deal. We have warned that the devolved administrations should not expect to be treated as ‘equal partners’ around the negotiating table.

Brussels

Meanwhile in Europe, the EU institutions have set up the infrastructure to enable them to handle the Brexit process, and making decisions about who will be involved and how the negotiations will work.

The Commission, Council and Parliament have each appointed a ‘lead negotiator’ for the Brexit talks, with the Council and the Commission also setting up ‘Brexit taskforces’ to help establish the EU’s common negotiating position.

The Commission – which is expected to do much of the day-to-day work on the Brexit talks – has made clear that there will be ‘no negotiation without notification’, meaning no discussions will begin before the UK triggers Article 50.

The next 100 days – and beyond

While the political landscape has changed almost beyond recognition – with a new Prime Minister, new Cabinet, new departments and a significant new political agenda – the last 100 days have been only the precursor to what will be a long and complex process.

We are no closer to finding out how the Government will manage the inevitable trade-offs involved in securing a new deal, what the UK’s detailed negotiating position will be, or when negotiations are likely to begin.

The Prime Minister should set out a timeline for the coming months and provide a roadmap for how she plans to use the new machinery of Government to deliver Brexit.