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Brexit - but what about the Queen’s speech?

The EU referendum campaign distracted politicians from the business of government, and the result will have further impact on the Government’s existing plans. Daniel Thornton looks at the implications.

In May, the Queen’s Speech set out legislative programme for the 2016-17 parliamentary session. Now in July, we have what is effectively a caretaker government, cabinet ministers vying for the top job, and an Opposition party in disarray. But the Government was already under pressure before this referendum. It set an ambitious agenda upon taking office: to reduce the deficit and reform public services. But it has struggled to command a majority in the Commons – losing votes on tax credits and disability benefits – and has no majority at all in the Lords.

For the last few months, most MPs were so focussed on the referendum that anything unpopular or connected with the EU was postponed. But even since the start of the new session the Government’s legislative programme has been quiet – particularly in the Commons – reflecting MPs’ other preoccupations. The Government has introduced only six of the 20 legislative measures promised in the 2016 Queen’s speech, and of just ten bills currently passing through Parliament, only three are currently in the Commons. The Higher Education and Research Bill – intended to reform university funding – had been expected to receive its Second Reading before recess but remains conspicuously absent from the Commons’ programme.

There is also a whole set of policies and decisions which will eventually require legislation to implement, but which are now being delayed in their progress towards Parliament (this table examines in more detail). The Spending Review announced plans for a big change in local government finance, with central government funding cut and local authorities able to retain 100% of business rates. The timetable for the consultation on these changes – a precursor to legislation - is now unclear. The Conservative party leadership campaign is likely to further disrupt the legislative programme. 

This is important because it will put in jeopardy savings that various reforms were intended to achieve. The next PM will revisit the Government’s plans and the legislative programme in the autumn, but the challenges of a small majority in the Commons and a rebellious backbench will not have changed. So he or she may be motivated to pursue an early election (and successfully navigate the restrictions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act) not only to seek a fresh democratic mandate, but also to regain control of Parliament and the legislative programme. What will be left of the 2016-17 parliamentary programme, and the proposals contained in the Queen’s Speech, remains to be seen.

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