The UK’s influence in the EU in the run up to Brexit

What we know

Until the UK agrees a treaty to leave the EU (or invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and fails to reach agreement within the two-year time limit) it will continue to be a member of the EU. In the interim, the UK will:

• retain access to the Single Market
• continue to contribute to the EU budget
• go on giving effect to EU legislation in UK law (which Parliament will go on scrutinising)
• still be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice
• keep its 73 Members of the European Parliament (MEP). At the moment the UK’s MEPs hold three committee chairmanships, but these will be lost in January 2017 (the European Parliament’s mid-term) when many jobs are reallocated – if they do not step down beforehand.
• still be entitled to attend EU Council and COREPER meetings on routine European business which is not about the UK’s exit terms.

What we don’t yet know

What we can’t yet tell is how rapidly the UK will cease to be a player in the EU – and what price will be paid for that. Influence in the EU is about people, relationships and the ability to create alliances. As the UK heads for the exit, it will see its sources of influence evaporate.

What happens to UK influence in the European Commission?

Technically, commissioners do not represent their state in the European Commission; however, they do occasionally press matters of national interest. When the UK Commissioner, Lord Hill, steps down on 15 July, the UK will lose the important Financial Services portfolio (which will go to the Latvian Commissioner in charge of the Euro).

The UK is entitled to appoint a new commissioner until it leaves the EU – the Commission has said it is ready ‘to discuss swiftly’ a replacement for Lord Hill – but Downing Street has indicated that this will be a decision for Cameron’s successor. Until that decision is made, the UK will be without a commissioner and unrepresented in the College of Commissioners that meets every week. It’s not clear what, if any, portfolio a replacement commissioner would be given. If anyone wants the job (which President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker is reported to have jokingly offered to David Cameron) their appointment would be subject to a hearing in the European Parliament and Qualified Majority Vote in the European Council. In principle, this could be done quickly once a candidate had been agreed between the UK and Juncker.

What happens to UK nationals in the European Commission and other EU bodies?

Over a number of years, the UK has tried to get UK nationals into the European Commission and other EU bodies as a source of behind-the-scenes influence. Although some senior European civil servants are British, generally the UK has been less represented than other member states; the 1,126 British nationals currently working for the Commission represent 3.8% of the total staff, compared to France’s 10.2%. Language requirements have proved a barrier to UK nationals; this was one reason why the Civil Service revived the European Fast Stream. When the UK leaves, its nationals will become ineligible to work in the EU institutions.They are unlikely to wait for the final light to be switched off before making new plans, so the UK will see that source of behind-the-scenes influence gradually ebb away.

What happens to the 2017 UK Presidency of the European Council?

Presidency of the European Council is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for a member state to set the EU agenda – the UK did it last in 2005. A presidency requires a huge Whitehall effort to chair working groups and pursue deals to deliver the UK’s goals, drawing on a lot of internal and external preparation. The civil servants who would have been involved in this will now be called on to help plan Brexit. There has been no announcement yet about what happens to the UK presidency, but the European Parliament has already called on the Council to change the order of the presidencies. It seems inconceivable that either side would want it to go ahead – and whoever is going to act as substitute for the UK will need as much notice as possible.

What happens to ‘business as usual’?

Although Brexit will occupy a lot of time and effort at the top of the European Commission, there will be the usual juggernaut of EU ‘business as usual’. Agreements made before the UK leaves will form part of the Single Market acquis, which it may choose to sign up to in whole or in part as part of its exit deal. Ideally, therefore, the UK needs to be in there influencing negotiations as usual. But the UK is likely to find it much harder to make the alliances that European negotiations require; the willingness of others to listen to the UK will be reduced. Many UK ministers already find EU meetings a chore rather than a pleasure – and if they are not at the formal or informal meetings that are part of the routine of EU life, they will find it even harder to strike deals. If UK ministers don’t go, it seems possible they will find their Scottish counterparts bidding to take the seat at the table – for example, in the forthcoming December negotiations over the Common Fisheries Policy.

What role does the UK play in international negotiations?

The EU does not just do internal business – in areas of shared competence it leads in international negotiations based on positions agreed in the European Council or co-ordination meetings. The UK will not have its own seat at the table in international negotiations until it actually leaves. But there are some big EU negotiations going on where the UK will still want to influence – the contentious US trade deal (TTIP), relationships with Iran and the implementation of the Paris climate agreement are all issues where the EU leads. In other areas, there is informal EU co-ordination on foreign policy – how soon will the UK’s ambassadors find themselves crossed off the invitation list?