Why now is not the time for a headless government

Cameron may be a prime minister waiting to resign, but he was elected to office with a majority in the House of Commons, which, technically, he still has. However, with a large amount of government business already held up by the EU referendum and the likelihood that controversial decisions will be deferred further, the interesting question is what kind of PM role Cameron needs to play in these circumstances. Many will expect him to play a minimal role in the months remaining. But there are a number of reasons why that may not be possible.

First, he needs to steady the Cabinet. In the UK, we operate through a system of collective Cabinet responsibility – so decisions are, in theory, made by the Cabinet all working together. But that has historically been balanced by the informal and formal powers held by the Prime Minister to pull Cabinet together, as its chairman, as the senior spokesperson and ultimately by being able to hire and fire its members. If the Cabinet as a whole is to make decisions, Cameron‘s skills as a chairman will be needed more than ever, as he has lost most of his other powers.

We will also have a government in which senior members are campaigning against each other for leadership of the Conservative Party, or at least in different camps. The need for stability may hold them together for some time, but for how long?

We have seen many previous eras in which a PM’s ability (or failure) to keep their Cabinet together has been one of the defining features of their premiership (see Harold Wilson’s occasionally masterful tactics, or the frustrations and futility often felt by John Major). Cameron’s ability to steer that Cabinet in these coming months will be a telling point on how much government business they can actually conduct.

Second, Cameron must enable civil servants for the task ahead. On Monday, ministers made the decision to create Cabinet Office machinery to co-ordinate negotiations for UK withdrawal from the EU across Whitehall. Departments will also be conducting their own work in establishing what each needs to do now and they will also be guided by their secretaries of state. Ultimately, if there are dividing lines in government, it usually falls to the PM to use their authority to bring cross-government collaboration. Even as a departing PM, Cameron will still have both personal and professional authority to do so.

Third, the PM also provides leadership and visibility for the Government. The Civil Service has become used to a strong steer from the office of No 10, including on foreign policy matters. Over the weekend, we saw many statements from EU leaders about their view of the process of UK withdrawal from the EU. In other circumstances, we would have seen the PM and No 10 rebuffing such comments, putting out a new line, briefing journalists, etc. But the lack of any public rebuttal from the Government was noticeable.

In the next couple of months, where will such a lead come from: specific ministers, the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor, or will we see the Secretary of State for Justice or the Home Secretary taking strong positions on matters outside their own department’s remit?

A final, but very important role is that of crisis handling. Hopefully, the current turmoil will be the only crisis to navigate. But should any other significant event or emergency manifest itself, No.10, as much as Cabinet Office contingency machinery, is crucial for ensuring swift and coordinated handling. The circumstances of Cameron’s resignation, with colleagues calling for him to stay, means he has the authority to lead the Government through and would need to do so. (It is now important that the PM stays out of the leadership campaign, and that those involved in it keep him out of it.)

David Cameron is far from the first PM to announce his resignation mid-office. However, the amount of time before his successor to be in place and the uncertainty that has followed the referendum result makes for very different circumstances. He may well be required to do more than keeping a loose hand on the tiller.