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Answering the Scottish question

Scotland shouldn't be deprioritised.

Scotland is slipping down the list of priorities of senior ministers and officials. That could be a serious mistake, says Peter Riddell.

David Cameron recently said that the pre-referendum vow about the ‘powerhouse parliament’ had been kept and, quoting its author, Lord Smith, that the agreement brokered by the Smith Commission had been delivered in full. So, in the Prime Minister’s view, the debate should now shift to how those new powers should be used. Based on conversations I had on a recent visit to Edinburgh, this view is both an oversimplification and premature. The Scotland Bill, now out of the Commons and due to have its second reading in the Lords next Tuesday, has certainly been strengthened along the lines of the Smith report last December. The SNP, unsurprisingly, does not think the amendments deliver on Smith, pointing to differences over the Department for Work and Pensions' residual ability to delay the Scottish Government’s use of its welfare powers; over the nature of the reference to legislative consent (or Sewel) motions in the bill; and over the Crown Estate. None of these differences is fatal. The real problem is the absence of agreement over the fiscal framework, now in limbo until after the spending review next Wednesday. The Scottish Budget has been put back until 16 December. The size of the grant is obviously crucial and there is expected to be a big cut. As important is the block grant adjustment formula, and how much the Scottish Government will get in the light of its new tax and welfare powers. There is also pressure for a relaxation of borrowing powers. SNP ministers have stressed that, until there is agreement on the fiscal framework, the Scottish Government and Parliament will not approve a legislative consent motion to the Scotland Bill. So there could be a stand-off, with a tight timetable for resolution before the Scottish Parliament is dissolved on 24 March ahead of the May elections. Electoral politics naturally matters and there is nothing the SNP enjoys more than running against the London Government’s alleged refusal to give Scotland a fair deal. As striking, however, is the sense of disengagement between Edinburgh and London. The high degree of interest in Whitehall in the pre-referendum weeks of 14 months ago has gone. The small number of officials directly involved are fully aware of the continuing problems. But for most departments, and most senior ministers, Scotland has largely been forgotten, and Wales and Northern Ireland are (apart from this week, when attention has focused on events at Stormont) even further from front of mind in Whitehall. It is a struggle to remind some departments that they have UK-wide, and not just English, responsibilities. The Scottish Government is finding it harder to get the attention of the Treasury, notably following the departure of the Scot Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary. More needs to be done to strengthen intergovernmental links at ministerial and official level – and with Wales and Northern Ireland as well. The shift in priorities is understandable. There are plenty of other issues demanding urgent attention. And Scotland appears, and is, small compared to the whole of the UK. It is also clear that demands for a second independence referendum are not an immediate priority in Edinburgh, not least because of the impact of the fall in the oil price on tax receipts and GDP. The independence question could be revived after the May elections. The most likely trigger could be the EU referendum, with polling evidence suggesting big differences in views – more support for remaining in the EU north of the border, less in England. At present however, a second independence referendum is just speculation. The overall message is that, despite Mr Cameron’s hopes, Scotland cannot be regarded as a manifesto pledge ticked off as done. Although the amended Scotland Bill does, despite continuing niggles, now largely deliver the Smith Commission deal, the fiscal framework is not just a detail: it is integral to the package. Making the union work requires a continuing commitment of ministerial and official time and will. The Scottish question has not been answered.
United Kingdom
Scotland
Devolved administration
Scottish government
Publisher
Institute for Government

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